Georgia: The Blame Game
See Global Voices special coverage page on the South Ossetia crisis.
With the international media reporting that Georgian forces are now engaged in direct conflict with the Russian military on the outskirts of Tskhinvali, capital of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, the situation still remains tense and unpredictable. Yet, with ethnic separatists claiming 1,400 civilians have been killed, views on the conflict remain polarized and ultimately appear to reflect what some see as a conflict over Russian and Western interests in the region.
More alarmingly for some observers is concern that the defacto state of war between Georgia and Russia will destabilize an already volatile region. With Azerbaijan already alleging that the Russian jets which bombed the Vaziani military base on the outskirts of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, took off from Armenia, The Global Buzz believes the concerns are very real.
Clearly something big is happening right now in Georgia but it is not clear from the news reports exactly what is occurring. If this is a full-scale Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, the question is, do the Russians intervene to prop up the separatist regime? If they do, does Georgia – with implicit American backing – go to war with Russia? If they don't, do the Georgians brazenly take that as a signal that the Russians won't risk war in Georgia and then try to roll into Abkhazia?
Might a Georgian-Russian confrontation in South Ossetia inspire more unrest in Chechnya? And seeing Russia distracted in Georgia, will Azerbaijan use this opportunity to take back Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia?
Too many questions, not enough answers.
But while some see the conflict as Russia meddling in the internal affairs of a former Soviet republic, many such as Unzipped are starting to blame the clashes on brinkmanship from the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili.
It is impossible to sympathise with Georgia’s not infrequent discriminatory policies towards ethnic minorities […]. At the end of the day, some may say this is not really about Ossetia or Georgia, it’s about USA and Russia. While international politics play key roles in escalating the conflict, there are some essential local issues and responsibilities which Georgian authorities prefer us not to notice.
A Fistful of Euros agrees and also says the conflict has as much to do with Saakashvili and Georgian nationalism as Russian agression.
Who started it? — Looks like Georgia. The sniping earlier came from both sides, but the Georgians have clearly launched a major ground offensive, and that doesn’t just happen by accident. […]
[…]
So, is it working? — It’s too early to tell, but it’s not looking good. […]
Why did Saakashvili try this now? […]
Saakashvili is an ardent nationalist who doesn’t view the disputes with Russia rationally. To him, they’re painful and continuing insults to the national soul.
More importantly, Saakashvili is a gambler. That’s because he lacks patience. […]
[…]
So, Saakashvili was stupid? — That might be too strong. But it looks like he made a couple of bad assumptions.
Writing on the New York Times blog, Paul Goble agrees to some extent and says that the Georgian president probably thought he could rely on U.S. support. The regional analyst also warns that the situation could spiral out of control.
What does this mean for the region? Let me offer several observations that go beyond the comment I wrote up earlier – that the entire Northern Caucasus, which includes parts of Georgia and Azerbaijan as well, is rapidly descending into chaos.
[…] lots more is going to happen in the region than just in Ossetia. Look for moves first in Abkhazia — I am sure arms are being handed out and troops moved — and elsewhere as well. And look for Islamist groups to exploit any movement of pro-Russian forces.
Lawyers, Guns and Money says that both Georgia and Russia have just claims and grievances against each other, but also blames Saakashvili. The blog also believes that Georgia's aspirations towards NATO membership as well as U.S. interests in the region have now suffered a significant setback.
[…] I am less sympathetic to the Georgian case because I think that escalating the war (and providing an excuse for Russian counter-escalation) was a damn stupid thing for Saakashvili to do, and a remarkably damn stupid thing for him to do absent an extremely compelling cause. Small, weak states living next to abrasive, unpredictable great powers need to be extremely careful about what they do; in most cases, their foreign policy should, first and foremost, be about avoiding war with the great power. This is what Saakashvili failed to do. The war didn't need to escalate; it was a Georgian decision to move from the village skirmishes that were happening on Tuesday to the siege of Tsikhinvali on Thursday.
[…]
Saakashvili was having political trouble before the war began, and will enjoy a bump even if Georgia loses. That won't last long; if the Russians don't remove him themselves, the Georgians probably will at some point. The stakes for Saakashvili are, thus, quite high, which is possibly why he spent half the day begging for Western assistance on CNN.
[…]
If the war develops as expected, and Russia pounds Georgia until the latter cries uncle, the United States will have suffered a substantial political setback. Hegemony or no, the United States will have been unable to give significant military aid to an Iraq War ally facing the prospect of interstate war. This isn't the end of the world, but it's not great.
Others, such as Crooked Timber, believe blaming the Georgian president is missing the point.
[…] We can spend any amount of time on the rights and wrongs of it, and whether the Saakashvili has brought this on himself. But as the news is filtering in, I have a couple of very superficial observations to make.
The current level of hostility has been bubbling towards the boil all year, but I truly thought the Russians would wait for a more obvious excuse to send the tanks in. But why wait when you can slip quietly into an obscure part of the Caucasus on the monster news day that follows the Olympics opening ceremony?
[…]
[…] wanting to join NATO is not a provocation. As Russia’s actions have clearly shown, joining NATO was the only sensible thing to do.
Writing from Tbilisi, Wu Wei also sides with the Georgians.
The only ethnic bit is the Georgians going back into their own territory. And then they let the civilians out in the cease fire, into Georgian territory. What have the Russians been doing for their citizens? I haven't seen any coming out. The South Ossetian provisional government was sending people to Georgia during the moratorium, not to Russia. Hard to see that as ethnic cleansing. It seems that the S Ossetian fighters didn't use the cease fire to give up their arms and didn't observe the cease fire either.
Geographic Travels with Catholicgauze! also warns that unless the West supports Georgia, an unfortunate precedent will be set.
This is a nightmare. Besides the fact war is horrible, this will set all sorts of new boundaries in the Russia versus the West Geopolitical War. If Russia can save South Ossetia and take them away from Georgia then might makes right. It also serves as a warning to those who wish to join NATO. The message would be “Russia can take away pieces of your territory.” It could also justify a more Eurasian Serbian government's forceful attempt to take back ethnic Serbian parts of Kosovo.
Geogrian President Saakashvili is not perfect. However, he is very pro-West, anti-terrorism, and pushes democratic reforms so his country may one day join the Europen Union and NATO. If Georgia, a Eurasian country that turned into a European one, fails; then democrats the world over will begin to wonder if the West truely supports them when the going gets rough.
Meanwhile, despite the fighting, life continues in other parts of the country although Armenia and me says that friends in Georgia, especially with family members wanting to enlist. are concerned. Wu Wei also paints a picture of business as usual, or at least for foreign nationals in the capital.
Betsy's hotel is an institution in Tbilisi. It has been the home from home for expats at least from 1994, when I first stayed there. Betsy is a formidable American lady. The hotel has moved to a new location since I first stayed there. By then there was not much shooting and not much electricity either.
Was there panic tonight? Not really.
Did we sit glued to the TV wondering if we would ever get out? Not really. Some people were watching the Olympics as you might expect.
Betsy came and went. A normal Friday evening.
Perhaps the most alarming thing, the blog notes, is the condition of Georgian hospitals. The Global Buzz also reports that almost all flights out of Tbilisi have been cancelled.
27 comments
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Ossetia (Samachablo) is the Oldest Georgian territory and really (they have their peace keapers there, etc.) under control of Russia. Called as South Osetia-Ckhinvali Region. South Osetia is only virtual. They have criminal and illegal administration, same in Abkhazia -the oldest part of Georgia. Also is under the control of Russia now. The both autonomous Republics was created by Stalin during the USSR times to have control over all nations in the USSR. Now Russia wants to restore the USSR under Russian Federation. It is under KGB structure. As you know Putin and Medvedev are from KGB structure.
This happens because Georgia tries to integrate in Europe and NATO to have a real independence on its own territory. Russia uses its levers to control Georgia, so that we could not fulfil our aims.
Andrey, you russian p, how idiotic you sound talking about ‘georgian agressors’ while Russians have done nothing more than invade and steal others land.
Anna and Maya, listen from a voice from the far east (neutral). Georgia has now a lot of blood on your hands, using weapons to kill thousands of innocent civilians. I support Russian actions to crush and punish Georgia. Those who come to plea in court with blood on their hands, can no longer cry murder or for help. They get what they deserve!!
Alvin,
what a hypocrit and ignorantr you should be talking about georgians blood on their hands while Georgia never ever invade any country!!!! Ossetia and Apkhazia are ancient Georgian lands for thousands of years and defending its country you call agression? what about you defended your f country against Germans?? it is you russians invade and destroy everything, look at Chechnia, look at Baltic, at half Europe you destroyed, look at Avganistan! you are the only people that love blood like vampires, you torture others, you hate even your own people! I hope you all burn in hell, because it is what agressors like you deserve! and I am sure it is last agony days of russian imperia! you soon will be destroyed.
This is outright misleading to blame Georgia because Soviet decided that Ossetia into two. This is the decision by Soviet, and Georgia is too be blamed because Stalin is Georgian. Georgia is not responsible for the act of Stalin. Georgia has never invaded South Ossetia.
It might be possible to claim that Ossetia is being cleansed. The reality is that Russia is cleansing everywhere and made no acknowledgment whatsoever. There is a strong reason that the claim of cleansing is fairy tale unless proven otherwise by non-Russian media.
I am from the East also.
For those who does not know, the small historical inquiry:
Ossetia, Abkhazia, Adjariya, Svanetiya etc. in XIX century were exposed to persecutions from the authorities of Tbilisi. Only presence at first imperial armies on kavkaze, and then and Soviet has helped to keep indigenous population.
Concerning last events small chronology:
From 02.08 till – from the Georgian party occurs artillery bombardments of capital of Ossetia and all its territory
From 04.08 – from Ossetia evacuation of local residents begins
07.08 19:00 – Saakashvili declares, that stops bombardment of territory of Ossetia and is ready to sit down for a negotiating table.
07.08 22:00 – Georgia begins the massed artillery bombardment of capital of Ossetia and its territories with application of the weapon of mass defeat
In the morning 08.08 Georgian armies go over to the offensive and moving ahead from different directions to capital of Ossetia completely wipe about all buildings and structures, destroying thus unarmed local residents. Fire is conducted and on the peace-making contingent located in Ossetia, there are killed.
08.08 09:00 – the authorities of South Ossetia ask Russia about protection
08.08 from 09:00 till – the Russian authorities call the USA, all countries of NATO, IOK to influence Georgia for the termination of offensive operation. Reacts only IOK.
08.08 from 17:00 – because of world community inactivity Russia enters the armies on territory of Ossetia and begins operation on expression of armies of Georgia with territory of Ossetia.
Simultaneously foreign news agencies inform on an attack of Russia to Georgia.
And WHERE YOU WERE EARLIER WHEN GEORGIA HAS SHOT MORE THAN 2000 INHABITANTS OF LOCAL INDIGENOUS POPULATION (living there centuries)?!?!?!
Those shots with ostensibly bombardment of Georgia which you see, actually night bombardment by the Georgian party of capital of Ossetia. REALLY TO YOU SO HAVE WASHED OUT BRAINS, THAT YOU ARE MEANINGLY READY TO GET RID 2000 OSSETIN, VICTIMS FROM HANDS OF THE GEORGIAN ARMIES FROM 07.08. LESS THAN FOR 12 HOURS by GEORGIA IT IS KILLED 2000 PEACE PERSON, AND YOU AT ALL DO NOT NOTICE THEM!!!
THERE IS NO SOVIET UNION MORE!!! FORGET ABOUT IT! NOT WE HAVE UNTIED THIS SLAUGHTER-HOUSE!!!!!
I am tired to hear “For those who does not know” or even “go back and read history”….
This is the style China accused Hongkong people. This is the style China accused Tibet supporters. No Russia is fabricating the so-call genocide.
I am tired to hear “For those who does not know” or even “go back and read history”….
This is the style China accused Hongkong people. This is the style China accused Tibet supporters. Now Russia is fabricating the so-call genocide.
Dear Anouk and Maconald, I am from south east asia, so I am away from all this conflict. I am neither pro-US or pro-Russia. However, when I look at the reports (verifiable across western media) as to the devastation in S. Ossentia, Georgia was the murderers! Unless you tell me S. Ossentians kill themselves 2000 of them or Russian peacekeepers opened fire and killed and blasted 2000 S. Ossentians?? Ridiculous, right??
Anouk is still hysterical, she /he still thinks I am russian, love blood like vampires etc and became even crazier by suggesting SE Asia has conflict with Germans?? Anyway, let crazy dogs lie. She is beyond any hope.
I understand that Russians are no angels too. But, on the balance of things, the Georgeans with blood on their hands, have created a situation where it is arguable if they were in the right or wrong. Russia will f*** their asses and what can they do?? Cry for help WITH BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS! So let us see how the scenes unfold.