Russia: Bloggers on Lessons of Tunisian Revolution · Global Voices
Gregory Asmolov

This post is part of our special coverage of Tunisia Revolution 2011.
Can Tunisian revolution launch another Russian revolution?, photo: Wikimedia Commons
Russian bloggers, as others around the globe, have entered into a lively discussed about the recent revolution in Tunisia. Following the field reports by resident bloggers, the discussion moved to the question of whether a Tunisian scenario would be possible in Russia.
Initial reporting and reactions
One blogger attracted the attention of RuNet by re-posting messages [RUS] from her friends:
Пишет подруга из Габеса: …слышали что кричат радостно…теперь звонят сыну предупредить что в Габес едет банда из Хамма/они разграбили полиц.участок забрали оружие и едут разбираться вГабес—-мы еще с вечера заготовили ведро камней и железки всякие–на случай…..сидим  по прежнему в дыму–так как пожар разгорелся с новой силой–уже огонь полыхает вовсю и взрывается что то там постоянно…..
Bloggers’ take on the revolution, as usual, wasn't universal. Blogger Avmalgin expressed his frustration that the revolution threatened the image of the country as a popular tourist destination. Roman-n wrote [RUS]:
Наши врачи и инжинеры, которые работали в Тунисе, на своих застольях всегда пили за “хабиба президента Бен Али”. Потому, что они считали, что именно благодаря ему там не режут головы на площадях. Вот щас посмотрим что там будет.
Italian76 was more optimistic [RUS]:
Надеюсь, что Тунис покажет и другим странам мира, где засели такие же мрази, что можно достаточно мирно и безболезненно скинуть гнет диктаторов, […] и создать нормальное общество для всех, а не только для избранных.
Is Tunisian scenario possible in Russia?
The major topic of discussion, however, was spinning around the possibility of the replication of the Tunisian scenario in Russia. LJ-user Vadimb wrote:
Тунисская молодежь протестовала против низкого уровня жизни и безработицы, а затем стала выдвигать политические лозунги. И все получилось.
Да, так просто. И в России не сложнее будет.
LJ-user chudinovandrei wrote [RUS] that no one could think that an African country would provide an example for an advanced revolution:
Первая в мире интернет-революция состоялась там где её никто и не ждал, в Африке.
События в Тунисе станут грозным предупреждением для всех авторитарных коррупционных режимов, и для нашего разумеется. Подозреваю, что у Суркова может случится преждевременный инсульт. Ведь по ЦТ приходится показывать видео-уроки народной кулинарии, с подробным описанием того, как надо заварить кашу и с чем её лучше съесть. […] А теперь нам надо брать уроки даже у африканцев. Уроки живой демократии и самоорганизации.
A blogger max_55555 was also optimistic and wrote [RUS] that “the're will be a holiday on our street as well, hopefully, without victims.” A blogger paiberg concluded [RUS]: “That's how the regime change takes place in countries without election. I am sure that the Putin’s Russia will have a similar destiny.”
Some bloggers paid attention [RUS] to the time that took to remove the Tunisian leader and asked if Russia should wait for another 13 years to reach the revolutionary situation. LJ-user Gloriaputina offered [RUS] a comparative analysis of the term length of the Arab leaders and concluded that eight years of Putin’s rule was not enough. But bloggers also found similarities between Tunisian leader and Putin. A blogger Malvinarus wrote in LJ-community putinvotstavku (“Putin should resign”) that both leaders used the struggle against terror as legitimization for tightening laws and expanding their authority. Other bloggers discussed where Primer Minister Putin could flee once the people will go out to the streets.
While modeling situation in Russia, user gigameg used some bits of Lenin's revolutionary theory and revised it under new conditions:
Так вот, революционная партия, конечно, хорошо, не помешает. Но не обязательна. В условиях жестокого подавления и диктатуры алгоритм другой – партии не создаются до, они моментально вырастают ПОСЛЕ революции.
Few users agreed [RUS] that the main difference between Russian and Tunisian leadership has been a readiness to use force against the opposition. Pcnariman wrote [RUS]: “He (Ben Ali) refused to give an order to shoot the rebels, but I don't think that in Russia there is any problem with it.”
There were bloggers that denied [RUS] analogies with Russia. Blogger al_ven explained [RUS] that the main problem of the Russian political culture was apathy and reluctance to change.
LJ-user zerrega emotionally wondered [RUS] what should happen in Russia to make possible wide protests against the government. zerrega reminded the situation when several thousands persons were locked in the paralyzed Moscow airports and haven't even filed any official complaints afterwards. The blogger concludes:
Если в Россию и нужна трудовая миграция, то это тунисские торговцы зеленью! Буазизи, твоё имя в наших сердцах!
Some bloggers pointed out some principal differences between Tunisia and Russia that made impossible the replication of the Tunisian scenario. Blogger amazonka_urals explained that the two countries have very different demographic situation. Unlike Tunisia, the Russian job market is relatively friendly to young generation (youth is dominating Tunisian demographic structure), while the elder people experience more employment problems. Amazonka_urals brought [RUS] another reason:
Но наше поколение, уже пережившее распад государства во взрослом возрасте и все связанные с этим прелести испытавшее на своей шкуре, государство валить ни за что не будет. Оно будет его критиковать, ругать, может бунтовать против какого-то конкретного закона или против каких-то конкретных представителей власти, но против государства – ни за что.
LJ-user Russobalt_k suggested [RUS]:
Путь России – в росте гражданской ответственности, активности, зрелости. Другого пути нет. Но и этот путь – совсем не “овощной”. Он предполагает и противостояние “власти” в ее некомпетентности, халатности, злом умысле. Обязательно постоянное давление критикой, отстаивание своих прав – даже и с перехлестом, с провокациями, с “пробой на зуб” тех или иных вариантов.
But still LJ-user Altoliman believed [RUS] that the Tunisian experience can be valuable for Russians: “They should write ‘How-to.’ It will be interesting.”
Internet and global revolution
There are a lot of discussions on the Tunisian revolution being the first real Facebook/Twiiter revolution. If the degree of local impact is debatable, the global impact is visible and clear. The  revolution in Africa arouses thoughts and minds of people all over the world including Russia. There is also some type of opposition solidarity between young social media generation all over the world.
American political scientist E. Schattschneider in his book “The Semi-Sovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America” explains that nature of the conflict depends on the degree of the audience's involvement. He wrote that “the outcome of all conflict is determined by the scope of its contagion. The number of people involved in any conflict determines what happens; every change in the number of participants, every increase or reduction in the number of participants, affect the result.”
The new informational technologies eliminate the ability of the state to control the range of a conflict. The scope of revolution contagion goes far beyond the borders of Tunisia. The range of revolutionary discourse expands and becomes global. The local ideas and political developments suggest global agenda and inspire global audience.
It doesn’t mean the revolution in Tunisia will cause tomorrow's revolutions in Belarus, Russia or Central Asia. But it definitely means that the global world becomes more dynamic and less stable, when the social media community and the new generation of bloggers play an increasingly significant role. It can be a good news for those who are looking to overthrow totalitarian regimes. It can be also a source for concerns. As blogger Shraibman wrote [RUS]:
Меня гораздо больше заботит то обстоятельство, что в современном мире остутствует ярко-выраженное альтернативное по отношению к капитализму и авторитаризму мышление. Революции и восстания могут легко отлиться в новые диктатуры, примеров море от Ленина до Хомейни, а народное восстание может превратится в погром на национальной почве…
Some experts claim modern nation-states are the most dangerous threats to their own people when it comes to digital technology. There is, however, even worse scenario than the one when the state filters information, hacks e-mails or manipulates Facebook and Twitter. It is when various networks become initiators of violence (e.g. the way it happened on Manezhnaya square a month ago). In other words, the real threat to networks are the networks itself.
This post is part of our special coverage of Tunisia Revolution 2011.