A destroyed theater in Irpin, Ukraine. Photo by Filip Noubel. Used with permission.

Ukraine is approaching its fourth winter under Russia’s full-scale invasion, while globally, the world has changed significantly since February 24, 2022. Donald Trump has been reelected in the United States, North Korean troops are now stationed on European soil, and Ukrainian troops have been fighting Russian troops and occupying part of its territory, but also intervening in Mali. As the war becomes increasingly internationalized, how are Ukrainians perceiving their situation? And how is Ukraine perceived in Global Majority societies at this crucial moment that might determine the outcome of the war? 

The war is claiming an escalating number of military and civilian casualties on both sides. Precise numbers are difficult to confirm, given the sensitivity and military censorship, but also due to the chaos brought by massive warfare. It is estimated that on the Ukrainian side, over 10,000 civilians and probably around 70,000 military personnel have died. Most recently, President Zelensky mentioned a figure of 43,000 dead soldiers, but this can not be verified independently. 

On the Russian side, conservative estimates put the figures at 600,000–700,000 deaths within the military, while the number of civilians and foreign casualties (mostly from Central and South Asia) are unknown. Many more have been injured on both sides, and deep psychological trauma is affecting millions. 

Migration and displacement continue to affect Ukraine: over four million people, mostly women and children, remain in the European Union, but about a third of them are unsure about their desire to return to Ukraine in the near future. Another four million from occupied territories and the frontline have relocated across Ukraine. Altogether, about 10 out of 38 million Ukrainians have lost their home. 

Following the Ukrainian military’s occupation of the Kursk region inside Russian territory in August 2024, an estimated 150,000 Russians have been displaced to other parts of Russia. While the Kursk operation, successful for Ukraine, represents a major change on the frontline, the rest of the frontline remains relatively unchanged despite heavy fighting and losses on both sides. 

A volatile, global war spanning four continents 

What has changed the most in the past few months is the international situation. Russia’s main surprise move has been to allow North Korean troops — estimated now at above 10,000, but that could potentially reach more than 100,000 — to fight in the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region it still controls. Iran, while more and more engaged in direct military confrontation with Israel, continues to provide drones to Russia to attack Ukraine. Belarus allows its territory to be used for Russian troops and now hosts Russia’s nuclear weapons. And despite declarations of neutrality, China continues to fuel Russia’s economy and military supplies. 

Ukraine’s Western allies are also going through major changes. The US has elected Donald Trump as its next president, which will mean significant changes in financial and military support to Ukraine, but also in the current isolation of Russia. The European Union, while offering twice as much aid to Ukraine as the US, remains divided and uncertain whether to prioritize its own rearmament or fully support Ukraine militarily. An overall shift to the right from Hungary to Germany means political support for Kyiv is also being challenged and might change significantly in the coming months.

Perceptions in the Global South vary widely: some countries, such as Turkey or India, have tried to play a mediator role between Kyiv and Moscow but have not succeeded. Ukrainian military operations in Sudan and in Mali, where the Russian armed mercenary group Wagner has been active, have divided African opinion as they have appeared to side with anti-government insurgents. Kyiv’s lack of criticism about Israel’s role in Gaza has also alienated parts of the public opinion in the Muslim and Arab worlds. 

In Ukraine itself, the situation remains extremely difficult also because of the impossibility of holding elections under a state of emergency and when large segments of the population live under Russian occupation or as refugees across the world. The recent intensive Russian bombing of key infrastructures such as water, electricity, and heating exacerbates the difficulties of daily life. Reimagining Ukrainian identities today and tomorrow, when the war is over, and redefining relations with Europe and the Global South are some of the questions that this new coverage by Global Voices proposes to explore through interviews, articles, and essays by Ukrainians as well as global citizens.