The Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant in Tennessee, USA. Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 3.0.

This article was submitted as part of the Global Voices Climate Justice fellowship, which pairs journalists from Sinophone and Global Majority countries to investigate the effects of Chinese development projects abroad. Find more stories here.

Kazakhstan is set to partner with China to construct its second and third nuclear power plants, which are projected to generate 2.4 GW of electricity and help the country address the growing energy deficit. However, the consequences of this cooperation go far beyond energy and stand to exert a long-term impact on Kazakhstan’s political landscape and environmental situation. 

Building these plants with China allows Kazakhstan to balance the influence of Russia, which is building the country’s first nuclear power plant and continues to play an important role in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. Environmentally, nuclear plants can accelerate the shift to clean energy and help the country address the nationwide problem of air pollution and related health issues. Kazakhstan’s traumatic past with nuclear testing and concerns over potential nuclear disasters are also salient. 

For China, this marks the beginning of nuclear projects in Central Asia and another major milestone in the energy cooperation with Kazakhstan and the wider region. It signals China’s commitment to extend and diversify its regional presence and strengthen its relationship with Kazakhstan through new forms of technological and energy cooperation. Construction, operation, and decommissioning of these plants could easily take over 60 years, highlighting the long-term nature of this bilateral engagement.

Energy shortage and air pollution-driven nuclear push

Kazakhstan’s nuclear plans partially stem from the growing energy deficit, with the capacity expansion failing to match increased demand due to population growth and industrialization. In the peak months of 2024, the demand reached 17.2 GW, exceeding the maximum generation capacity of 16.6 GW, which was addressed by importing electricity from neighboring states. The deficit is projected to reach 6.2 GW by 2030, prompting the authorities to expand capacity and modernize infrastructure.  

Nuclear power plants’ clean energy production process is particularly relevant for Kazakhstan, where polluting coal is the primary source of energy. In 2024, 66 percent of the country’s electricity was generated through coal. Consequently, 35 cities spread across the country face significant air pollution, according to the National Hydrometeorological Service of Kazakhstan. 

According to Kazakhstani doctor Denis Vinnikov, who has researched air pollution’s effects on health, long-term exposure to polluted air increases the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). One of the most polluted cities in Kazakhstan, Almaty, is one of the national leaders with the highest cases of COPD. 

The tragic nuclear past and fears over potential disasters

The Inkai uranium mine in Kazakhstan. Image from Wikimedia Commons. License  CC BY-SA 4.0.

As the world’s largest producer of uranium, Kazakhstan is well-positioned to host nuclear power plants. One of the reasons it has abstained from harnessing its nuclear energy potential has been the public sensitivity due to the tragic history of nuclear testing. 

Up until 1991, Kazakhstan was part of the Soviet Union, which used the Semipalatinsk Testing Site in the north of the country to carry out 456 nuclear tests between 1949 and 1989, exposing over 1.5 million people to harmful radiation and polluting the environment. For context, these tests substitute 25 percent of all nuclear explosions held in the world in that time period. 

To overcome this sensitivity, the government conducted a nuclear referendum in October 2024, during which 72 percent voted in favour. However, the government pushed for the “yes” vote from the very beginning and attempted to limit the influence of the opposition, who argued that cons outweighed pros and potential disasters could have a devastating impact on millions of people and the environment. 

In the competition to build Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, Russia’s Rosatom emerged victorious, beating out competitors from China, South Korea, and France. The construction work has already begun in the village of Ulken, located on the shores of Balkhash Lake in the southern Almaty province. Rosatom’s plant is expected to cost around USD 15 billion and generate 2.4 GW of energy by its completion in 2035. 

On June 14, when Rosatom was announced as the winner of the tender for the first plant, the Kazakhstani authorities also revealed that China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) will build the second nuclear plant. On July 31, Roman Sklyar, Kazakhstan’s Vice Prime Minister, stated that CNNC will build the third nuclear plant as well. The exact locations of the second and third nuclear plants have not been announced yet.  

CNNC has stated that it can build two HPR-1000 reactors, which can generate 2.4 gigawatts combined. As this will be at a cost of USD 5.5 billion and reportedly be within five years, this is significantly cheaper and faster than estimates from Russian, French, and South Korean firms. 

Multilateral cooperation gone nuclear

Kazatomprom’s Ulba Metallurgical Plant (UMP) is the national operator for the nuclear industry in Kazakhstan. Screenshot from YouTube.

Kazakhstan’s nuclear cooperation with China serves as a testament to the constantly growing trade and investment ties. The bilateral cooperation covers traditional and renewable energy, agriculture, machinery, and mining, among other areas. China is one of Kazakhstan’s most significant trade and investment partners. 

In 2022, the countries signed a permanent comprehensive strategic partnership. Between 2005 and 2023, China invested over USD 25 billion in Kazakhstan.  The two sides also work closely within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s global connectivity project focusing on energy, trade, and transport infrastructure in the global majority states. 

For its part, China frames cooperation with Kazakhstan as “strategic cooperation” that aligns the BRI with Kazakhstan’s “Nurly Jol (Bright Path)” economic stimulus program, seeing as both countries are “communities with a shared destiny.” Kazakh political leaders, as President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, are depicted in Chinese state-run media as praising Chinese technological prowess as advanced. 

China’s nuclear move in Kazakhstan comes when China is undergoing a massive boost in its nuclear power industry, with 19 reactors under construction and plans to build 150 further plants by 2035. Nuclear power is touted as a green energy source when it comes to projects in Kazakhstan. In its messaging, China has sought to highlight that nuclear energy can decrease reliance on polluting coal. 

China’s entrance to the Kazakh nuclear industry aims to challenge Russia, with Kazakhstan's nuclear resources company Kazatomprom selling uranium resources that it was previously jointly developing with Rosatom to Chinese companies in late 2024. Reportedly, this sale took place after pressure from Astana. At the same time, that Kazakhstan intends for its first nuclear power plant to still be built by Rosatom illustrates Kazakhstan’s balancing act between Russia and China. 

Kazakhstan’s nuclear agency stated that “Only Russia and China can independently offer a complete range of services, from financing to the location of nuclear fuel cycle conversions, including personnel training, design, construction, handling and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel.”

Though China generally depicts its efforts in the nuclear industry aimed at fighting air pollution caused by other sources of power, this is also discussed in terms of China’s nuclear industry “going global.” Kazakhstan is positioned as a natural partner in such initiatives, “as the birthplace of the BRI,” and a country with large oil, gas, and natural resources reserves. This writes a “new chapter of a friendship spanning two millennia” and can deliver “Chinese technology and wisdom to Central Asia.” 

Kazakhstan’s nuclear projects with China are another milestone in their growing and all-encompassing cooperation. Both parties stand to gain from it. However, as the host nation, Kazakhstan faces greater environmental and political risks associated with possible disasters and technological dependence in a nascent and critical nuclear industry.