The flood situation in Sheikhan Village, Chiniot District, Punjab Province, on August 31, 2025. Image by Nighat Dad. Used with permission.

During mid and late August 2025, northern Pakistan was hit by a catastrophic flash flood. The disaster appears to have been triggered by an unrelenting combination of pre-monsoon rains and upstream water releases that simply overwhelmed rivers already running dangerously high across multiple provinces — particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan. Over 800 people have been killed since late June, thousands of homes and crucial pieces of infrastructure have been destroyed, and many remote villages remain inaccessible due to damaged and washed-out roads. Authorities responded by continuing their rescue and relief work and evacuating people from the disaster zone.

The situation started deteriorating around August 14th, but the real devastation unfolded between August 15th and 22nd. The Buner and Shangla districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa seem to have borne the worst of it, with entire villages essentially cut off from the outside world, homes swept away like matchsticks, and critical infrastructure destroyed.

Why was the flooding so intense?

Several factors appear to have aggravated the disaster. This year’s monsoon rainfall has been well above average — 50 to 60 percent higher than typical for the season. Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned that more heavy rains are expected in early September, likely raising floodwaters further and triggering urban flooding. But that is only part of the story.

Both India and Pakistan have been battered by severe monsoon rains and widespread flooding in recent weeks. The two arch-rivals share five rivers originating in Tibet and India before flowing into Pakistan, governed for more than six decades by the Indus Waters Treaty (1960). India suspended its obligations under the treaty following the Pahalgam terrorist attack in April, accusing Pakistan of orchestrating the violence. Water from these rivers is vital for Pakistan’s agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectric power systems.

With heavy rains swelling rivers in India in recent weeks, authorities opened the floodgates of major dams. India claims it warned Pakistan of possible downstream flooding, while Pakistan insists the information was not conveyed in time. Releases from overflowing Indian reservoirs have since pushed water levels in the Sutlej and Ravi even higher. The surge is now headed towards the Sindh province, where preparations are underway for the worst.

However, many experts are pointing to climate change as the underlying reason, suggesting it's fuelling both heavier rainfall patterns and accelerated glacial melt. Scientists predicted that exceptionally intense rainfall and rapid glacier melt, driven by higher average temperatures and climate change, are amplifying the risks of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and flash floods across the Himalayas and Hindu Kush.

Pakistan has over 13,000 glaciers, the largest concentration of glaciers outside of the polar regions. However, experts are warning about roughly 10,000 glaciers in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan that appear to be melting at an alarming rate due to climate change-induced temperature increase. During the third week of August, at least 200 people had to be evacuated to safety after a glacier burst in Gilgit-Baltistan. The burst apparently blocked the Ghizer River, which created a serious threat to all the communities downstream.

The Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) reported on August 23rd that the glacial burst sent water mixed with debris and heavy stones crashing into the river, essentially damming it up for several hours. With nowhere to go, the backed-up water spread for kilometers, creating what was basically an artificial lake. The recent flooding has since formed two large lakes this way.

Severe weather and floods update from Pakistan as on 29 July 2025. Image via Wikipedia by ERCC – Emergency Response Coordination Centre. CC BY 4.0.

Flood mitigation plans in this new reality

Scientists mention that GLOFs, which are triggered when glacier-meltwater lakes breach their natural dams, are now harder to predict and can strike with minimal warning. Melting glaciers increase the likelihood of rock and soil instability in the remote mountains, which triggers landslides and downstream flooding. Although meteorologists are using technologically improved radars and early warning systems, forecasting cloudbursts or the exact location of GLOFs remains extremely challenging.

A joint project by UNDP and the Pakistan Ministry of Climate Change funded by the Green Climate Fund (USD 36.9 million) titled “Scaling-up of GLOF risk reduction in Northern Pakistan (GLOF-II)” is designed to help communities in northern Pakistan prepare for and mitigate the risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) through early warning systems, enhanced infrastructure, and community-based disaster risk management. GLOF-II has set up weather stations and early warning systems in 24 valleys and installed gauges and sensors to better detect risks and alert communities. The project built or upgraded around 250 protective structures and trained local communities. But that is not enough.

Global Voices interviewed Dr Shafqat Munir Ahmad, a humanitarian, sustainability, and resilience specialist, via email to understand the readiness of the government in disaster mitigation.

Global Voices (GV):⁠ ⁠Why has the government was not effective in early warning of the floods or ensure preventive measures?

Dr Shafqat Munir Ahmad (SMA): Partially it is true that somehow early warning actions by the authorities remain insufficient, but the cloudburst itself is a difficult phenomenon to predict well ahead of significant lead time rather it has a short lead time to warn the people of such an happening. Moreover, cloudbursts are localized and sudden heavy rainfall in a small area causing flash floods. This phenomenon largely occurs in mountainous regions due to orographic lift that rises the air and cools and condenses it resulting in snow or downpour heavily. This phenomenon is sudden and hardly gives much time to flee from this situation. The preventive measures to handle normal monsoon cannot handle cloudbursts and erratic rains.

GV:⁠ ⁠What steps can the Pakistani government take to prevent such disasters?

SMA: There is a need that the government undertake a three-pronged strategy — making communities aware of the frequency and impacts of such hazards, take anticipatory actions (with pre-agreed cash to fund response, relief, rescue, and rehabilitation of the vulnerable communities), and a strong communication among three tiers of governments right from the federal to provincial and local governments. The localized hazards can best be responded to and handled by the local governments and communities. The provincial governments in all the provinces and governments in Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir should ensure that local governments are functional with adequate resources to undertake anticipatory climate resilience actions. There is a need to make early warning systems accessible to the vulnerable communities in their local languages.

GV: ⁠What changes do you think required in the building codes or sanction of commercial establishments (hotels etc.) in the disaster prone areas?

SMA: The cloudbursts and otherwise heavy monsoon rains washed away all weak infrastructures that came on their way. The broken buildings and road networks should be rebuilt based on the build back better mantra meeting the building construction codes. The hotels and resorts must not be built on the paths of the flow of water and should withstand the powerful climatic hazards such as cloudbursts, glacier melts, water flows, and flash floods. The housing units should be designed in compliance to the building codes. The markets should be constructed meeting the legal parameters and building codes. Even before constructing heavy infrastructures and road networks, environmental protection assessments should be done.