Two years on: Evaluating President Tinubu's security strategy in Nigeria

In the village of Zenam Kelouri, Nigerien soldiers carry out a show of force in their fight against Boko Haram.

In the village of Zenam Kelouri, Nigerian soldiers carry out a show of force in their fight against Boko Haram. Image by VOA/Nicolas Pinault on Wikimedia Commons (Public domain).

By Adanna Omeye

National security is fundamentally linked to national development. A nation without a robust security system risks a decline in foreign direct investment, economic instability, threats to human rights, the emigration of skilled human capital, and, most critically, the loss of lives and property.

Despite its abundant natural resources and diverse population, Nigeria continues to grapple with security issues. According to the 2024 Global Peace Index (GPI), the country ranks 147th out of 163 nations globally and 38th out of 44 in Africa. These figures reflect a persistent state of violence and instability that undermines national progress.

Highlights from President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda

On May 29, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked his second year in office. As reported by The Cable News, some of the highlights regarding his Renewed Hope agenda on strengthening national security for peace and prosperity, including the neutralization of 543 violent criminals, the arrest of 17,469 individuals, and the rescue of 9,821 hostages. Additionally, security agencies recovered 11,118 weapons and 252,596 rounds of assorted ammunition. To enhance operational capacity, the federal government procured over 25 helicopters and aircraft, along with more than four naval vessels.

In a ministerial briefing on May 7, 2025, the Minister of Defence, Muhammad Badaru, noted improvements in security, particularly in previously terrorized communities in the Northeast and Northwest regions, where many displaced individuals are now returning to their homes. Complementing this approach, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, during an All Progressive Congress (APC) national summit, introduced the “Kaduna Model,” based on the effective peacebuilding strategies in Kaduna, Nigeria, where 35 warlords surrendered. While these developments are laudable, insecurity remains a significant challenge across the federation.

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Rising crime rate and attacks across the nation

Beyond the absence of war and conflict, peace also entails the absence of crime. Unfortunately, this aspect of peace remains problematic in Nigeria, given the rising crime rates across the country. 

Data from the Global Organized Crime Index show that Nigeria's crime score increased from 7.15 in 2021 to 7.28 in 2023. The country now ranks sixth globally, second in Africa, and first in West Africa in terms of crime prevalence. The primary contributors to this inglorious ranking include insurgency, human trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, and protection racketeering. Among these, Boko Haram, a self-proclaimed militant jihadist group that has been active in Northwestern Nigeria for over 20 years, poses a formidable threat.

This Islamist militant group remains one of the most lethal in the world, seeking to dismantle Nigeria’s secular democratic structure and replace it with a regime based on Islamic law. Nigeria is now ranked among the top ten countries in the 2024 Global Terrorism Index (GTI). In 2023, the country saw its first rise in violent attacks in three years and the highest number of terrorism-related deaths since 2020. The escalation is partly attributed to violent clashes between Boko Haram and a breakaway faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), operating in the Northeast and the southern Lake Chad Basin.

Despite its nickname as Nigeria's “Home of Peace,” Borno state remains the epicenter of Boko Haram’s activities. As of 2024, the state experienced a 63 percent increase in terrorism-related deaths, and the number of attacks rose from 48 to 73, a 52 percent increase. 

On May 12, 2025, Boko Haram insurgents attacked a military base in the Marte Local Government Area (LGA), resulting in the deaths of both soldiers and civilians. In a remarkable demonstration of leadership, Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, personally visited the crisis zone and spent the night in the embattled town, coordinating relief and security efforts. His action drew widespread praise, including from former presidential candidate Peter Obi, who posted on X saying:

The security situation in Borno State is concerning and very unsettling. What is happening in the Marte area of the state is not just a local emergency; it is a national alarm bell that must not be ignored. Governor Babagana Zulum, by choosing to spend the night in a town under threat, has once again demonstrated what leadership should look like: present, proactive, and people-centred. His courage is not for commendation alone; it is a challenge to those in authority to match words with decisive action.

Other states affected by Boko Haram’s insurgency include Yobe, Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Kano, Niger, and Kaduna. Notably, the group's notoriety grew after the 2014 abduction of over 250 schoolgirls in Chibok. Since 2007, Nigeria has recorded at least 11,299 terrorism-related fatalities.

Beyond violent insurgency groups, other pressing security challenges include the farmer-herder conflicts, which led to at least 30 fatalities and over 100 injuries in January 2024. Furthermore, Benue State has experienced a surge in violence caused by farmer-herder conflict, with 11 individuals killed in a renewed attack on Afia community, and 42 others reportedly slain in coordinated assaults across four additional communities — Tyolaha, Tse-Ubiam, Ahume, and Aondona.

Separatist movements have caused widespread economic disruptions, while activities of unknown gunmen, rampant oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and incidents of kidnapping and banditry further threaten national stability.

The impact on citizens and the economy

The need to strengthen Nigeria’s national security cannot be overemphasized, given its effects on the economy. In the Northcentral and Northwest regions, where insurgency is most prevalent, the number of internally displaced persons rose from 1,087,875 in October 2022 to 1,302,443 in March 2024. This displacement not only reduces the productive potential of affected communities but also disrupts the education of children caught in conflict. Moreover, insecurity discourages foreign and domestic investment. No investor wishes to operate in an unpredictable and dangerous environment.

It also impacts daily life, forcing people into constant fear and restricted lifestyles. A stark example is Governor Mohammad Bago’s directive banning dreadlocks in order to curb cultism in Niger state. While this may be well-intentioned, such measures often spark public resentment, as they are perceived as infringements on personal rights.

The President Tinubu administration has recorded important milestones in combating insecurity through a mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies. However, more effective actions, better strategies, and stronger approaches must be adopted to ensure that the deep-rooted insecurity issues in Nigeria are addressed with urgency and care.

2 comments

  • Magnus Chijindu Onyemaobi

    A good research, but can we also look at the complexity of political leaders in fuelling insecurity in Northern Nigeria. How do our leaders account for the numerous monetary grants and aids coming to Northern Nigeria on yearly basis. For instance in 2024, the U.S mission in Nigeria announced that Nigeria will receive $27 million from U.S auld package.

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