Image of Mioritsa dancing group by Takajarru, filmed during YLE TV1's “Little Foal Dance” program in Moldova, June 19, 1983. Licensed under a Wikimedia Commons Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.

This article, by independent Moldovan news outlet NewsMaker, first appeared as part of its analysis on several waves of Moldovan emigration. A translated, edited version is being republished on Global Voices under a content partnership agreement with NewsMaker.

The early years of Moldova’s independence were marked by the collapse of the USSR, an armed conflict in Transnistria, and difficult economic and political reforms that created both instability and uncertainty. This was the environment that sparked the first wave of the country's mass emigration.

First wave (1990-1995) – ethnic and economic motives

This wave was primarily ethnic in nature, although economic factors quickly gained importance. Departures during this period were often permanent. Ethnic minorities formed the bulk of this flow, taking advantage of new opportunities to repatriate or move to countries of ethnic origin. Most notable was the exodus of the Jewish population: from 1990 to 1996, around 40,000 Jews repatriated to Israel. In 1992 alone, according to Moldova’s National Bureau of Statistics, 3,441 people emigrated, though international sources suggest the number was even higher – around 4,305.

Other key destinations in what is referred to as the “far abroad” (which accounted for up to 97 percent of emigration during this period) included Germany (29.9 percent) and the USA (25.4 percent), with significant flows also heading to Russia and Ukraine.

Dr. Alexander Makukhin, a sociologist and expert in migration, noted that since 1987, the USSR allowed ethnic Jews to repatriate to Israel:

Back then, it was extremely difficult. People could leave with no more than 40 dollars in foreign currency per person. But it had a significant impact on Moldova due to the substantial Jewish population. The first wave of emigration was primarily Jewish, followed later by other ethnic programs, such as late repatriation of ethnic Germans.

Although this emigration wave was largely shaped by ethnic factors and repatriation opportunities, it played an important role, leading to the departure of a significant portion of the population, and creating the first emigration channels and diasporas abroad. These early networks and experiences likely made future emigration waves, driven more by economic motives, easier and less risky. Thus, the first wave served not merely as an isolated event, but as a prelude to subsequent mass economic emigration.

Second wave (mid-1990s-early 2000s) – rise of labor emigration

By the mid-1990s, Moldova had plunged into a deep socio-economic crisis. Falling living standards, closure of industrial enterprises, joblessness, and high inflation created unbearable conditions for many. By the late '90s, the country was considered the poorest in the region.

Emigration patterns shifted significantly. The ethnic factor receded, giving way to mass economic and labor emigration. The country began to lose its most active and employable citizens, for whom emigration became an investment strategy of sorts to escape extreme poverty. Irregular emigration increased, especially to Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal. The illegal nature of this emigration makes it difficult to assess the full scale – but it was significant – and while Russia remained a key destination, the focus also began shifting westward.

Makukhin observed that integration was also starting to happen:

By 1998–99, many realized they wanted to settle in a new country, not just work there.

This was the beginning of the brain drain of Moldova's most active  population. It wasn’t so much emigration for better opportunities as it was an escape from the complete lack of prospects at home. The loss of this demographic core laid the foundation for some of Moldova’s long-term issues – population aging and depletion of the labor force — problems still acutely felt today. This wave firmly placed emigration in the public mindset as not just an option, but a necessity for survival.

Third wave (early 2000s-2014) – Romania joins the EU

In the early 2000s, emigration patterns became more diverse.  Labor emigration still dominated, but destination countries diversified. Despite a decline after Russia tightened registration rules, it remained a leading destination, with over 190,000 Moldovans there by 2010. Italy became the second-largest, with over 58,000 Moldovans by 2010. Turkey, Israel, Ukraine, Portugal, and Germany were also popular, and emigration amnesties in Southern Europe allowed many to legalize their status.

A key factor was Moldovans’ mass acquisition of Romanian citizenship – over 200,000 by 2010. When Romania joined the European Union in 2007, granting it access to the EU labor market, it effectively offered Moldovan immigrants there a trial run of free movement within the EU well before their own country began formal steps toward integration. It also revealed Moldovans’ readiness to seize legal emigration opportunities to the EU, confirming projections of a potential emigration spike post-accession.

A new type of pattern soon emerged: family-based emigration. Naturalized Moldovans began bringing their children and relatives to join them abroad, and a noticeable feminization of migration occurred, especially to Italy. Many migrants came from rural areas, though urban representation later increased.

Fourth wave (2014-present) – visa-free travel

The signing of the EU Association Agreement and the introduction of visa-free travel in 2014 marked a turning point. In 2022, official border statistics showed that 241,448 people left Moldova — nearly double the number in 2014. From 2014 to 2024, Moldova’s permanent population shrank by nearly 400,000 people.

Makukhin emphasized a sharp “rejuvenation” of emigration:

We are now losing our youngest and most active population. And there’s no longer the gender imbalance we saw earlier – both men and women are leaving.

Economic disparities remain the principal driver. EU countries – especially Italy, France, and Germany – are still the top destinations, while emigration to Russia has plummeted from about 600,000 to fewer than 80,000 by 2022.

External shocks marked this period. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary mass return (about 316,000 from January to September 2020), but most left again once restrictions eased. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine brought Ukrainian refugees to Moldova, and saw some Moldovan migrants return from Russia and Ukraine, though exact figures are unclear.

Remittances vs. brain drain

The economic impact of emigration is mixed. On one hand, remittances are vital: 1.9-2 billion USD annually, or 12-16 percent of Moldova’s gross domestic product. They support consumption and reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, helping households to survive.

However, brain drain remains a serious issue: it’s not just unskilled workers leaving, but also many educated professionals. Moldova's loss of its most educated and experienced people impacts vital sectors like education and healthcare, where there have been doctor shortages.

A disappearing nation?

The most obvious and alarming result of Moldova’s emigration waves is its catastrophic population decline.

In the three decades since independence, Moldova has lost about 40 percent of its population: from 4.36 million in 1991 to 2.4 million by early 2024, excluding Transnistria. On average, 35,000-40,000 people leave the country each year. Moldova now has one of the highest emigration and depopulation rates globally.

Emigration of younger people plummets birth rates, worsening economic issues and potentially fueling further emigration, while the aging population strains pensions and healthcare, and the shrinking workforce reduces tax revenues.