On the left: Presidential candidate of Bolivia Andrónico Rodríguez. On the right: Former President of Bolivia Evo Morales. Collage made by CONNECTAS. Used with permission.

This article, by the Bolivian journalist Ernesto Estremadoiro, first appeared in CONNECTAS. An edited version is being republished on Global Voices under a content partnership agreement.

In 1958, Italian writer Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa offered a political paradox in his novel “The Leopard” that helps explain how those in power manage to stay there: “If we want things to stay as they are, everything must change.” Understanding this principle helps make sense of the emergence of Andrónico Rodríguez in Bolivian politics, and how his rise signals the decline of Evo Morales – but perhaps without any real change.

For nearly 20 years – except between 2019 and 2020 – Bolivia has been governed by the Movement for Socialism (MAS). Between 2006 and 2014, under then president Morales, the country experienced an economic boom – but like any cycle, the boom ended. Since 2015, Bolivia has faced a gradual economic decline, worsened by the pandemic which happened during Jeanine Áñez’s interim government and continued under current president Luis Arce Catacora, also from MAS.

This year's general elections, scheduled for August 17, come at a time of economic crisis and political fragmentation. MAS, once a dominant force, is now internally divided: President Arce has withdrawn his candidacy, and Morales has been disqualified by the Constitutional Court, prompting him to form a new party, Evo Pueblo.

With Bolivia’s dollar reserves nearly depleted, rising inflation, and a ruling party split into two factions, Rodríguez has emerged as a third MAS-aligned option. On May 3, he officially announced his candidacy for president. His campaign aims to distance itself from both the economic failures attributed to Arce and the tarnished figure of Morales, who faces allegations of sexual abuse involving minors.

For months, Rodríguez stayed out of both camps, building his own political base with support from former Morales allies. As Arce’s popularity wanes, more figures have defected to Rodríguez’s camp. The new contender has proposed changes to the economic model, which he calls a failure, though critics say his ideas are more cosmetic than structural.

Who is this millennial?

Born in Sacaba (Cochabamba) in 1988, Rodríguez comes from a unionist family. His father, Carlos Rodríguez, was a leader in the Cochabamba federation of farmers; his mother, Sinforosa Ledezma, bequeathed him land so he could join the Mamoré Bulo Bulo union at a young age.

At six years old, he accompanied his father to long meetings in the coca-growing region, where he learned patience and how to listen. At fifteen, he saw Morales for the first time and, by his own account, made Morales his mentor. By 22, with a political science degree from San Simón University (UMSS), he was already a youth leader in agrarian and coca-growing groups, such as Seis Federaciones del Trópico. At 32, newly elected to the National Assembly, he became Senate President. Now at 37, he’s aiming for the presidency. He has even had songs written in his honor, calling him “son of the people” and “a symbol of unity.”

Freddy Calizaya's song “Hijo del Pueblo Andrónico Rodríguez” (“Son of the People, Andrónico Rodríguez”), can be heard in the video below, as a soundtrack to footage of Rodríguez campaigning:

As MAS’s internal divisions grew, Rodríguez stayed aligned with the “Evistas” (those who are pro-Evo Morales) and, as Senate President, became a vocal critic of Arce’s administration, leading legislators to refuse to approve various loans.

However, in recent months, he’s also begun to distance himself from Morales, questioning aspects of the so-called “Proceso de Cambio” (“Process of Change”) and the actions of the ruling party.

Initiated by Morales and the MAS party, this process refers to the significant political, social, and economic transformations implemented since 2006 and formalized by the 2009 constitution, which aims to reshape the Bolivian state by prioritizing Indigenous rights, increasing political participation, and strengthening the role of the state in development. However, at an economic forum in Santa Cruz, Rodríguez defended the need to reform the economic model to include more private sector and cooperative participation.

When Arce withdrew from the race, Rodríguez wrote on social media:

A radical change is needed. Sadly, overreach, abuse of power, corruption, imprisoned farmers, constant accusations and attacks, the fragmentation of social movements, and protests both for and against the government have eroded trust in institutions, dragging us into a deep economic crisis.

Despite his declarations, Rodríguez has yet to win over everyone. In an interview, political scientist Orlando Peralta referred to him as “a continuation”:

There’s no transformation – ideologically or programmatically. He hasn’t presented clear proposals. He hasn’t mentioned structural reforms or specific measures to get us out of the current crisis.

By now, Peralta argues, Rodríguez should have taken a stance on key issues like a new constitution, labor reforms, incentives for production, or fiscal policy. Instead, his campaign relies more on the failures of his rivals than on his own vision.

Bolivia's economic situation does not leave room for ambuiguous decisions. Bolivia faces depleted international reserves, unsustainable subsidies, and stagnant domestic production. Rodríguez has said nothing about how he would handle fiscal constraints or engage with the IMF or global markets. “The rightwing has a clear position: renegotiate with the IMF and cut spending. With Andrónico, we know nothing. He remains silent,” says Peralta.

Inheriting the machine without challenging it

Peralta is especially critical of Rodríguez’s circle: former MAS operatives, long-time Evistas, and radical leftist theorists who promote him internationally as a “renewal.” He suggests that this may be a renewal for the left, but not for Bolivia:

It’ll be the same state model, with the same internal and external interests, and a younger rhetoric – but no real change. It’s the continuation of a worn-out system, not a refoundation.

Rodríguez’s age is his main political asset. Being under 40 lets him tap into social fatigue with strongmen like Morales. But youth alone isn’t enough for a transformative project. “It’s not a political virtue – it’s a generational fact,” says Peralta. “Someone had to fill the gap left by Evo and Arce.” Despite being touted by media and international groups as a symbol of renewal, Rodríguez has yet to answer the fundamental question: does he have a real plan for Bolivia?

Peralta believes Rodríguez’s candidacy may simply be another attempt to keep afloat the same sinking ship. Without clear economic proposals, a reformist agenda, or independence from the old MAS apparatus, Rodríguez risks becoming the young face of an exhausted political project.

Will Morales retire?

Political analyst Paul Coca asserts that Evo Morales effectively retired on February 21, 2016, when voters rejected his reelection bid in a referendum. “Evo didn’t want to accept retirement,” Coca recalls. “His refusal to leave power led to the 2019 crisis.”

Still, Morales continues to cast a shadow over Bolivian politics and could maintain a parliamentary presence in the next legislature. But with a fragmented opposition and a ruling party split into Evistas, Arcistas, and Androniquistas, the next parliament may be a real “salad,” as one analyst put it in an interview. Governing will require coalitions, negotiation, and – above all – clear proposals.

In that scenario, Coca suggests that Rodríguez will need to go beyond symbolic rhetoric. “Youth and being a new face are not enough,” he explains. “What’s needed is a clear vision for the country and the ability to act.”