Image by Arzu Geybullayeva. Created using Canva Pro.

Nearly half a year since the fatal Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crash near the city of Aqtau in Kazakhstan, authorities in Baku say Russia is dragging its feet in sharing the results of an investigation that the Russian authorities promised to carry out. The plane was downed on December 25, 2024, after being struck by “external objects,” which video footage and eyewitness testimony attribute to a Russian missile. 

Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been tense since the crash, although questions loom as to whether the stand-off is real, as the ties between the two countries were at their diplomatic peak before the incident. 

On December 25, 2024, the Embraer 190, flight number J2-8243, crashed near the city of Aqtau in Kazakhstan. The flight out of Baku was en route to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Out of 67 people (including the crew) on board, 38 died. While at first, it was not clear what caused the crash, video footage and photos from the scene indicated that a missile strike was the cause.

Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190AR (4K-AZ65) passenger plane traveling from Baku to Grozny crashes near Aktau, Kazakhstan earlier today. There were 72 [sic, 67] occupants including five crew members.

Six survivors are in critical condition. Pending any official confirmation,… pic.twitter.com/cjRzOrPzQ8

— FL360aero (@fl360aero) December 25, 2024 

On December 28, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, told Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in a phone conversation that he “apologized for the fact that the tragic incident took place in Russian airspace and expressed his deep and sincere condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the injured.” However, Russia's president stopped short of taking full responsibility. Russia is yet to meet the remaining demands raised by President Ilham Aliyev following the crash, including punishing those responsible and paying full compensation to the families of victims and survivors of the crash. 

Soon after the crash, the Kazakh authorities established a government commission, which included international aviation experts, to investigate the cause of the incident. A preliminary report, published on February 4, concluded that the crash was due to “foreign metal objects” striking the plane.

Based on International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidelines, all airline crash investigations must be started within 30 days of the crash and must be completed within one year, giving authorities about six months to finalize their reports.  

Until this preliminary report, much of the Azerbaijani government-aligned and government-owned media promoted the narrative that the crash was caused by an “unidentified cause.” That language changed rather quickly when the news of a possible assassination attempt on President Ilham Aliyev hit the news. According to reporting by Meydan TV, when the AZAL passenger plane was shot down, Aliyev was en route to Russia to attend a CIS summit. “The presidential plane, which took off almost simultaneously with the downed passenger plane, immediately returned to Baku,” reported the outlet, causing many to speculate that Aliyev was the intended target. 

The disintegration of Russia's soft power

In February, Azerbaijani authorities threatened to take Russia to international court and also shut down the “Russia House,” a local branch of Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian state-funded cultural diplomacy agency, a key body in promoting the country's soft power. The official reason given was its status as an unregistered entity.

The pro-government media had a different take, as it posited the Russian establishment may have been involved in espionage, relying on unnamed sources. That the Russia House may have been operating as an intelligence gathering service was not surprising, at least not for veteran Azerbaijani journalist Rauf Mirkadirov, who told OC Media in an interview that the presence of Russian agents of influence in Azerbaijan was acknowledged some years ago.

Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the allegations of espionage in a meeting with Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Rahman Mustafayev, which took place shortly after the Russia House was shut down. During the meeting, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Galuzin also raised concerns over anti-Russian publications by Azerbaijani media. 

The Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs reciprocated by summoning Russian Ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov to the ministry, where the former expressed concern over Russian media's biased coverage of the December crash and the scale of disinformation in the reporting.  

There were reports that Azerbaijan would shut down schools providing education in the Russian language; however, no further steps were taken to implement the decision.

Tensions continued as parliament members from both countries released statements stoking the flames, including Russian MP Nikolai Valuev, who criticized the choice to close the Russia House. Azerbaijan snapped back at Valuev for his remarks and proceeded to ban him from entering the country. “Baku considers the anti-Azerbaijani statements by Russian State Duma deputy Nikolai Valuev unacceptable and has declared him persona non grata,” Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ayhan Hajizade said in a statement, according to media reports.

In the following weeks, Azerbaijani authorities also ordered the closure of the Azerbaijani branch of Russia Today, a Russian state-funded news outlet and a subsidiary of the Sputnik news agency. Although the closure of the Russian outlet was part of a broader crackdown on media in Azerbaijan, it was also perceived as retaliatory after the December crash. 

In early May, the Commission on Countering Foreign Interference and Hybrid Threats in the Azerbaijani Parliament accused the Russian cyber espionage group APT29 of a wave of cyberattacks targeting Azerbaijani outlets. The head of the Commission, Ramid Namazov, was certain the cause was the closure of Russia House and Russia Today in Azerbaijan. 

On May 4, Russian authorities deported Azerbaijani Member of Parliament Azər Badamov to Azerbaijan. Badamov was scheduled to attend a series of events dedicated to the birth year of the former President of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, in the Russian city of Astrakhan. Aykhan Hajizada, Spokesperson of Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said:  

Although the delegation flew from Baku to Moscow, the Russian side, without any prior warning or notification, stopped the Member of Parliament Azer Badamov at the airport in Moscow and informed him that he was banned from entering the country. The Russian MFA did not explain the reasons behind this decision. We view this decision of the Russian side to be an unfriendly step and expect a substantiated explanation from Russia regarding the matter.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also pulled out from attending Moscow's May 9 Victory Day celebrations, a significant holiday in many former Soviet nations.

On May 12, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport reiterated once again that the final report on the cause of the crash will be published after the investigation is finalized. Whether the two countries continue the diplomatic fallout remains to be seen, although the likelihood is rather slim. As noted by Rauf Mirkadirov in an interview with Meydan TV, “These relationships are more about the subjective interests of the Azerbaijani government. I don't believe the Azerbaijani government will suddenly sever ties with Russia.”