Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, where the attack happened. Image by Hellohappy via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0.

A deadly militant attack in Pahalgam Valley, in Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 23 left 26 tourists dead, including a navy officer, a foreign national, and an Indian Intelligence Bureau (IB) officer.

Pahalgam, often referred to as the “Switzerland of Kashmir,” has witnessed militant violence before, but this is the first time tourists have been directly targeted on such a large scale. The incident has exposed significant security vulnerabilities despite heavy troop deployments in the area.

What really happened?

Immediately after the attack, a Kashmir-based group called The Resistance Front (TRF) initially claimed responsibility on social media, citing demographic changes post-Article 370-A revocation in 2019, where the Indian government revoked the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir's special semi-autonomous status. Indian authorities often describe TRF as a proxy for the Pakistani terrorist organisation Lashkar-e Tayyiba.

Lashkar-e-Tayyiba is a Pakistani Islamist Salafi jihadist group founded in the late 1980s. Its stated aim is to merge the entire Kashmir region into Pakistan. The group has been accused of carrying out multiple attacks in India, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks. It is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, and several other countries.

Speaking to Global Voices about the disinformation dynamics surrounding The Resistance Front (TRF), security analyst and executive director of the Center for Research and Security, Imtiaz Gul, pointed to a longstanding regional pattern of proxy warfare and information manipulation, while also noting a broader global shift in the nature of militancy.

All states use proxies, proxy narratives, and proxy actors to push their narratives. This is nothing new. But because India has massive influence outside of India, it often gets away with false claims — not always, but often.

While India is putting the entire blame directly or indirectly on Pakistan, its officials tend to overlook a new phenomenon that has emerged globally.  The rise of locally radicalized groups inspired by al-Qaeda or Daesh-ISK. Kashmir has been going through turmoil and insurgency, and it is quite possible that locally radicalized individuals may have carried out this condemnable terror attack. Indians tend to totally rule out this possibility.

However, within hours, TRF released another statement denying involvement, accusing the Indian government of conducting a “state-backed digital assault” to spread confusion and push political agendas.

Disinformation and confusion

Following the attack, a surge of disinformation flooded social media platforms. Unverified videos and posts blaming Pakistan went viral, stoking nationalist sentiments, intensifying anger, and making it difficult to verify facts on the ground.

The rapid spread of conflicting narratives has further complicated efforts to establish responsibility and fuelled mistrust between the two nations. Gunfire has already been traded along the borders of the two countries amid the increasing tensions.

Ramsha Jahangir, journalist and policy expert on technology and misinformation, told Global Voices via WhatsApp:

Since the attack, we've seen a surge in unverified claims, often amplified by emotionally charged language and the sharing of sensationalized or outright false content (images and videos, some old or unrelated) in both India and Pakistan.

She added, pointing to how amateur “open-source intelligence” and viral misinformation are increasingly shaping public opinion and diplomatic posturing:

The sheer volume of unverified ‘OSINT’ [Open-source intelligence] analysis and leaks on social media in India and Pakistan is eroding trust, fueling division, and complicating an already complex bilateral relationship.

On the Pakistani side, X, which is blocked in Pakistan, was flooded with memes, mocking messages, and videos.

Pakistani digital creator Sayyida Bukhari posted on X:

Pakistanis have a unique way of coping with crises – by turning them into meme gold! During tense moments with India, social media erupts with humor, from Bollywood parodies to witty jokes about the Indus Waters Treaty…. pic.twitter.com/VKYG2KC4c1

— sayyida bukhari (@syeda636) April 27, 2025

User Namaloomafraaad quipped:

the funniest shit is, there is absolutely nothing india can threaten us with that we aren’t already suffering from at the hands of our govt

pani rok louge? wese hi nahi aata
maar dou ge? humari govt maar hi rahi hai
lahore le lou ge? Le lo adhay ghantay baad khud wapis ker jaoge

— nma (@namaloomafraaad) April 24, 2025

Stop our water flow?
Our taps are already dry.

Hurt us?
Our own government does that just fine.

Conquer Lahore?
You'll give it back in half an hour

Impact on India–Pakistan bilateral relations

The attack has triggered a sharp escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, both of whom claim Kashmir in full but control it in parts. The region has been a flashpoint for three wars and decades of hostility.

A map of India and Pakistan. Illustration by Grubb via Wikipedia. CC BY-SA 3.0.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue “terrorists and their sponsors” without restraint, directly blaming Pakistan.

In the days that followed, India expelled Pakistani diplomats and shut down major border crossings. Only the Kartarpur corridor for Sikh pilgrims is still open. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a key water-sharing agreement, was also suspended, which could significantly impact water distribution in the region.

In response, Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) convened a high-level meeting on April 24. It announced the suspension of trade with India and the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines, which India reciprocated.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif criticized India's “persistent campaign of baseless allegations,” calling for an immediate end to the “perpetual blame game” and offering to participate in any “neutral, transparent, and credible investigation.”

Imtiaz Gul, however, dismissed the likelihood of full-scale military confrontation between India and Pakistan. In his view, despite escalatory rhetoric, strategic calculations remain largely intact.

I don’t foresee any long-run conflict or military escalation between both countries. Both know each other’s mindset very well, and both are nuclear-armed. The nuclear capability basically discounts the possibility of a large-scale military confrontation. However, we can’t rule out small-scale fireworks between the two countries — primarily to appease domestic sentiment.

Vulnerable Pahalgam

Pahalgam has witnessed a series of militant attacks over the years — from the 1995 abduction of foreign tourists to assaults on Amarnath pilgrims in 2000, 2001, and 2017. Yet despite this history, the scale and targeting of tourists in the latest attack signal a dangerous escalation, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of existing security measures.

The current surge of disinformation, layered over an already volatile situation, risks not only undermining investigations but also inflaming nationalist sentiments on both sides, further diminishing the already slim chances for constructive dialogue.

Asked whether any form of backchannel diplomacy remains active, especially in light of the Pahalgam incident and rising tensions over the Indus Waters Treaty, Gul noted that diplomatic engagement had largely stalled well before the latest attack.

Diplomacy between the countries had been still-witted anyway before the Pahalgam incident. It has only precipitated an already fragile situation. Pakistan seems to be at a disadvantage, largely because much of the world remains traditionally more sympathetic toward India and less receptive to Pakistan. India has a huge information machinery domestically and in the West. Indian narratives basically sell far better than what Pakistan has to offer today.

Pakistan’s Information Minister, Atta Ullah Tarar, held an unusual press conference at midnight on Wednesday, April 30, issuing a stark warning, claiming credible intelligence reports that indicated, “India plans military action against Pakistan within the next 24 to 36 hours.”

An official from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, warned of the possibility of a limited military confrontation in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, particularly in the country's airspace.

A full-scale war is unlikely, but an aerial confrontation is possible far more so than a ground invasion. Islamabad is on high alert. Our leaves have been cancelled, and no one is being allowed to leave the capital. We’ve been assigned round-the-clock duties at the 24-hour control room. While a ground attack seems less likely, an aerial strike cannot be ruled out at this point.