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While the US has been ramping up tariffs against China for months now as part of its escalating trade war, US President Donald Trump has moved forward to impose staggering 104 percent tariffs and a 125 percent duty rate on all Chinese imports beginning April 9th. The tariff war has resulted in a literal economic “decoupling” of China and the US.

Although China and Hong Kong’s stock markets have seen waves of panic selling in the past few days, public sentiment on Chinese social media has been relatively calm. 

The escalating US-China trade war

This phase of the trade war between the US and China heated up on what Trump referred to as “liberation day” on April 2, where he implemented so-called “reciprocal” (but not actually reciprocal) tariffs against nearly every country in the world — including uninhabited islands and countries with no trade relations with the US. China was slapped with a 34 percent tariff in addition to the preexisting 20 percent levy on all Chinese goods.

Beijing slammed Trump’s trade policy as “a typical unilateral bullying practice,” announced a 34 percent counter-tariff on all US imports, and vowed to “fight to the end.” Trump responded with an astonishing 50 percent add-on tax, and Beijing fought back by raising the counter-tarriff to 84 percent. Then, approximately 13 hours after imposing the sweeping global tariffs, Trump announced on April 9th that he would pause higher-than-10-percent reciprocal tariffs for most countries for 90 days but exclude China. Instead, he raised the duty rate of Chinese goods further to 125 percent.

The trade war between the US and China started in 2016 during Trump’s first presidential term, when 21 percent of the US imports came from China, and the trade deficit between the two reached USD 347 billion. After years of imposing trade barriers, by 2024, the trade deficit had lowered to USD 295 billion, with the US importing USD 440 billion in goods, mainly consumer products such as smartphones and toys, and exporting USD 145 billion in goods, primarily agriculture and high-end technology products, to China.

Judging from the trade figures, China seems poised to suffer more than the US in the trade war. However, Donald Trump’s aggressive policy and the image of him as a “bullying US imperialist,” as portrayed by mainland Chinese media outlets, have unleashed strong patriotic sentiments online with an influx of opinions on Weibo that expressed their frustration with Trump’s irrational move.

On both Weibo and X, many Chinese users, regardless of their political orientation, believe that China is in a more advantageous position in the tariff war.

China's resilience 

On Weibo, Hu Xijin, a prominent Chinese nationalist commentator, expressed confidence that China has the resilience to survive the US-China decoupling:

…脱钩过程会非常混乱，那将是双方的痛苦。对美国来说，关税战是一场“自找的经济灾难”，他们内部注定分歧很大… 对中国来说，应战是被强加的，调整即使不容易，也唯有往前走。毕竟对美出口只剩中国对外出口总额的14.6%了，而且这些只占中国GDP的2.3%，这构不成对中国经济的根本冲击。重要的是，事情被逼到这一步，中国社会踏下心来应对，被逼出来的一定是韧性和新的开拓精神。

…the decoupling process will be very chaotic and painful for both sides. For the US, the tariff war is a ‘self-inflicted economic disaster’; there will be very severe internal conflicts…  China is forced to fight back, and even if the adjustment is not easy, it can only move forward. After all, exports to the US only represent 14.6 percent of China's total foreign exports, which accounts for 2.3 percent of China's GDP. This will not constitute a fundamental impact on the Chinese economy. The Chinese society is forced to the extent that they will develop a resilient spirit and new strategies to fight for their survival. 

China's GDP growth rate was 5 percent in 2024. During the COVID-19 lockdown, it plunged by 3.8 percent in 2020 and 5.4 percent in 2022. In recent years, mainland Chinese manufacturers have begun moving their production lines offshore to other countries, including India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Mexico, Vietnam, and the EU, to avoid geopolitical risks and circumvent trade barriers. 

Other nationalist opinion leaders, like Zhao Sheng, addressed the tariff war from the consumer viewpoint:

#美国关税政策伤了谁# 现在在超市疯狂抢购囤货、举国恐慌的不是中国人民，而是美国人民，这已经能够说明问题了。…

至于加34%，还是加104%…..这有什么区别？反正你都不想做生意了，不如直接加到600%，彻底脱钩断链…美国的鸡蛋需要从墨西哥走私，而中国的鸡蛋很多地方都是直接白送，中国10万人民币就能买一台带智能驾驶的高配置新能源汽车，美国3万美元只能买一台二手破日本车，中国大量的家电便宜到只要几百上千，美国人买个电视还要贷款……你看看身边的普罗大众，哪个不是日子照过？谁在乎美国佬发癫啊？

#WhoWillBeHurtByTheUSTariffPolicy? Now, it's not the Chinese people who are panicking and frantically buying and stocking up at the supermarkets, but the American people. This shows the answer. …

As for a 34 percent increase, or a 104 percent increase… what difference does it make? You don't want to do business anyway, so you might as well raise it to 600 percent and completely decouple and break the production chain… US eggs need to be smuggled from Mexico, while China's eggs in many places do not cost a dime. In China, RMB 100,000 yuan [approximately USD 13,600] can buy a new energy car with AI autopilot function; in the US, a used Japanese vehicle could cost up to USD 30,000. In China, most home appliances only cost a few hundred RMB, while many Americans have to buy a TV set with a loan. … Look around; people live their lives as usual. Who cares about the crazy Yankees?

As US exports to China are mostly industrial supplies such as soybeans for pig farms, pharmaceuticals, airplanes, and engines, it will not have a direct impact on people’s daily lives. However, consumers in the US will suffer directly from surging prices on daily necessities.

Even Chinese political liberals on X, such as @laozhouhengmei, criticized Trump for providing an opportunity for China to strengthen its position as a world leader:

川普的关税核战对打击中共政权真的起到了反效果。 因为现在只有中国在对川普的关税战坚决进行反击，让中国俨然成为了世界反抗川普霸权的领袖。 是，川普关税对中国的经济打击是实实在在的，但却在无形中提升了中共在国际上的声誉。

Trump's tariff nuclear war has really had the opposite effect for the Chinese Communist regime (CCP). China is the only country firmly fighting back against Trump's tariff war, making it a world leader in resisting Trump's hegemony. Yes, Trump's tariff strike was a real economic blow to China, but it has inadvertently boosted the CCP's reputation internationally.

Since Beijing’s stake in the tariff war is not merely economic, it is very unlikely that the Communist Party of China (CPC) will back down, as pointed out by former mainland Chinese journalist @wildwall1984 on X:

所谓“胆小鬼游戏”式的威胁，在中共面前从来都没有用。

这不仅不符合中共一贯的外交策略，更不会在当前的政治局势下成为选项。中共在处理国际压力时，始终坚持一个原则性立场：对等报复。…退让意味着示弱，示弱就意味着“低声下气”，这在中共话语体系中是极度忌讳的。

尤其是在习近平目前的政治位置上，更无退路可言。如果在重大国际博弈中选择后退，不仅对外形象受损，更可能在党内遭遇政敌的围攻。强硬，是政治需要，更是自我保卫机制。

而且，对中共而言，这根本不是什么“经济纠纷”。在它眼里，这是一场关于国家安全、发展道路和制度优越性的全面竞争。

The ‘game of chicken’ kind of threat will not work on the Communist Party of China.

[The tariff threat] is not in line with the CPC's diplomatic strategy and is not an option in the current political situation. When dealing with international pressure, the CPC has always maintained the position of reciprocal retaliation… Concession means showing weakness and begging, which is a taboo in the CPC's discourse.

Particularly for Xi Jinping, there is no backing down. If he chooses to retreat in a major international game, his image will be tarnished, and he may be besieged by his political opponents from within the party. Being tough is a necessary political choice and a self-defense mechanism.

Moreover, for the CPC, this is not an ‘economic dispute’ but a competition concerning China’s national security, developmental model, and institutional superiority. 

Taiwan at stake

However, given the surge of patriotic sentiment in China, Taiwan’s security may be at stake. On Weibo, some nationalists saw the tariff war as an opportunity for Beijing to take military action to “unify” with Taiwan. Below is one such comment written by a Guangzhou-based Weibo user:

特朗普“神助攻”加速中国统一台湾！…中美贸易将“无限接近脱钩”状态。

到时候，中国收复台湾将不再重点考虑经济方面的情况了，中国只有放手一搏，将加速中国以雷霆之势收复台湾，统一祖国，最终实现祖国的伟大复兴。

Trump is super helpful in speeding up China's reunification with Taiwan! …China and the US trade will be in a ‘decoupling’ state.

By then, China will not need to consider the economic impact of taking back Taiwan. It only needs to grab a chance and take back Taiwan with a thunderous move. This will speed up the unification of the motherland and the ultimate great rejuvenation of China.  

Since 2012, the reunification of Taiwan with China has been a top agenda item of Xi Jinping’s national rejuvenation dream. 

Taiwan has been a de facto autonomous state since 1949 after Kuomintong, the ruling party of the Republic of China (ROC), retreated to Taiwan upon being defeated by the CPC in the Chinese Civil War. Tensions between Taiwan and China have escalated since the pro-Taiwan independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) replaced the KMT as Taiwan’s ruling party in 2016. For years, China has advocated for its Taiwan unification agenda with economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military exercises.

China’s most recent round of large-scale military drills to blockade Taiwan took place in early April. Analysts said the exercise could be a prelude to its annexation of the self-ruled region. 

While we can't predict the future, the tariff war will likely destabilize the world's geopolitical status quo.