From promises of change to total capture — Turkey's political forecast
Image by Arzu Geybullayeva via CanvaPro
In April 2024, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed to make amends and fix the mistakes which led to the defeat of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the local election. “If we made a mistake, we will fix it,” said the president at the time. The loss reversed political tides ahead of the next general elections scheduled for 2028. Fast forward to February 2025, and it is becoming clear that the ruling government's take on fixing mistakes looks rather different.
Crackdown on political parties
In total, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) won in 35 out of 81 provinces in the local elections. The rest of the provinces were split between AKP (24 provinces), the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM, 10 provinces), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, 8 provinces), the New Welfare Party (2 provinces), and Iyi Party (Good Party, 1 province). Since then, 21 mayoral seats won by the New Welfare Party have been transferred under the ruling party's control after members transferred from NWP to the ruling AKP. Eight mayors from the DEM Party and two from the opposition CHP were replaced by the government-appointed trustees.
Trustee appointments are a common occurrence and have been in practice long before the local election loss for the ruling party. According to documentation by local civil society, since 2016, the ruling government has removed 147 mayors, replacing them with government-appointed trustees. Kurdish mayors have often made the majority of targeted trustee appointments as well as arrests.
In 2016, pro-Erdoğan courts arrested senior DEM party leaders, such as Selahattin Demirtaş on bogus charges of organizing protests in 2014 “in the country's Kurdish-populated regions, known as the ‘Kobanî protests.'” He was sentenced in May 2024 to more than 40 years and an additional two-and-a-half-year sentence in July 2024.
Following the most recent general elections, the DEM party secured 57 parliamentary seats. During mayoral elections this year, the party’s candidates won in 10 cities, 58 provincial districts and seven counties. After previous local elections, many of the party's democratically elected mayors, 58 to be exact, were removed and replaced by the state-appointed trustees over their alleged ties to the Kurdish militants. This refers to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which is designated a terrorist group by Turkey and the West.
The trustee appointments started in Hakkari with the removal of DEM Party co-chair Mehmet Sıddık Akış, who was also sentenced to 19 years and 6 months in prison because of a case filed against him in 2014. Akış was accused of “managing an armed terrorist organization,” “being a member of an armed terrorist organization,” and “making propaganda for an organization.”
Then came the detention of the CHP mayor of Esenyurt Municipality in Istanbul, Ahmet Özer, in October 2024. A trustee was appointed in his place.
In the following months, mayors of Mardin, Batman, Halfeti, Tunceli, Ovacık, Van Bahçesaray Municipality, Akdeniz district of Mersin, Beşiktaş municipality of Istanbul, and Siirt, were dismissed. They were either replaced by government-appointed trustees or arrested or sentenced to lengthy jail times.
In January, the leader of the Victory (Zafer) Party, Ümit Özdağ, was detained on charges of “insulting the president” and “inciting hatred and enmity among the public.”
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu now faces more than 20 years in prison if convicted. Most recently, an investigation was launched against him for allegedly “threatening” Istanbul prosecutor Akın Gürlek and his family. The alleged threat relates to a comment İmamoğlu made during a panel on law and politicization of the judiciary in Turkey.
The popular mayor, who secured a victory in recent local elections, is already facing a potential political ban because of another ongoing case against him for allegedly insulting public officials in a speech he made after he won Istanbul's municipal election in 2019. The higher appeals court must uphold the verdict, but until then, İmamoğlu remains Istanbul's mayor.
One local outlet, Aposto, captured how, since their appointments, trustees to 11 municipalities removed all social media posts and content on websites from the previously elected mayors’ term. The trustees did not touch the posts from the AKP period, the outlet pointed out.
Crackdown on civil society and beyond
In addition to political figures, the authorities have also targeted a group of individuals, including journalists, civil society representatives, businessmen and many others.
In February 2025, the president of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD), Orhan Turan and the High Advisory Council (YİK) president, Ömer Aras were questioned following their remarks made during the General Assembly meeting of TÜSİAD. Turan and Aras spoke of the arrests, women's rights, trustee appointments, and legal and economic downfall. The ruling AKP responded right away. Turkey's Minister of Justice, Yılmaz Tunç, accused Aras and Turan of attempting to manipulate the judiciary and politics. Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said in a statement both speeches were aimed at disrupting public peace.
In January, the İstanbul Bar Association’s leadership was accused of “terrorist propaganda.” One of the association's board members, lawyer Fırat Epözdemir, was arrested on “membership in a terrorist organization” charges.
Seven journalists and media representatives from pro-Kurdish outlets were detained across several provinces in Turkey and later arrested for “membership in a terrorist organization.” Separately, three other journalists, Seyhan Avşar, Ahmet Doğan Akın, and Candan Yıldız, were placed under investigation on charges of “terrorist propaganda through press and media” and “publicly spreading misleading information through press and media.”
At least three journalists were summoned for questioning over their reporting, while journalist Şirin Payzın said an investigation was launched against her on charges of “terrorist propaganda.” Three other media workers and journalists — Barış Pehlivan, Serhan Asker, and Seda Selek — were detained in January 2025.
“Journalism is not a crime, and no amount of pressure or harassment can silence the truth,” read a joint statement by 17 press freedom and human rights organisations calling for the release of all unjustly arrested journalists. Authorities have targeted 23 journalists and media representatives in recent months, according to the Turkish Journalists Union.
In January, police arrested a talent manager representing artists and actors, Ayşe Barım, accusing her of being one of the “organizers” of the 2013 Gezi Park protests and charging her with “attempting to overthrow the government or prevent it from carrying out its duties.”
In an interview with Turkey Recap, Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, the head of the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS Network), said, “The government is trying to repress as much as it can from all sides to silence voices against the [Kurdish negotiations]. They are sending the message to different parts of society or ideological groupings that the government is repressive and strong and can do whatever they want.”
In his recent piece for Global Voices, Sinan Ciddi explained what is at stake when it comes to the ruling party's recent rapprochement with the Kurds:
While the president cannot run in the next presidential race in 2028, according to Turkey's Constitution, there are two scenarios in which this can change. In the first scenario, President Erdoğan and the AKP would need to secure 400 votes in the parliament to change the constitution. Turkey's parliament, the Grand National Assembly, consists of 600 seats. At the moment, the AKP and its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), hold 313 seats. Thus, pushing for a constitutional amendment with a parliamentary vote would largely depend on whether the ruling party and the President can secure the support of other political party representatives.
In the second scenario, the parliament can call for an early election. But even in this scenario, 360 parliamentary votes are needed.