Image from USAID's Flickr. CC: BY-SA 2.0.

United States President Donald Trump’s move to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID) at the beginning of his second term in January 2025 has shaken the world as its humanitarian and development programs covered more than 100 countries at the time of its shutdown. 

Soon after freezing the agency’s operation, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Trump’s top adviser and controversial billionaire Elon Musk, moved in to investigate the alleged “corruption” and “mismanagement” of the governmental agency.

In 2023, USAID handled about USD 43.4 billion in funds around the world, and its biggest projects were humanitarian relief in Ukraine and other war zones, AIDS relief and health crisis response in African countries, and refugee support in South Asian and Latin American countries. In addition, it also funded civic groups and independent media outlets in many undemocratic countries to extend the US’s soft power. 

Although, for years, the agency has been criticized for its inefficiency and waste, American political sociologist Larry Diamond warned that the shutdown decision, along with Trump’s isolationist diplomacy, would undermine the US’s geopolitical leadership:

Imagine how gleeful Communist China, Communist Cuba, Putin, Kim Jong Un, Iran's ayatollahs, & other tyrants are at Trump's moves to shut down USAID, kill NED [The National Endowment for Democracy], trash the UN system, and withdraw from the world. A giant gift to our adversaries and a massive blow to global freedom.

— LarryDiamond (@LarryDiamond) February 5, 2025

China’s Soft Power

Among those who can benefit from the new policy, many political analysts are turning their eyes toward China, anticipating that the authoritarian country will take advantage of the shutdown decision.

American political scientist Ian Bremmer, for example, explained the history of USAID, which was founded in 1961 by then-US President John Kennedy as a tool to sustain US influence, expand its business market, and maintain its national security and stability through non-military means. He warned that once the agency was dismantled, China would replace the US in global leadership:

Cutting USAID creates a vacuum – and @ianbremmer says that creates opportunity for the US’ adversaries, like China.

He explains in his latest #QuickTake for @gzeromedia:
pic.twitter.com/NpDfV3Lx8Z

— Eurasia Group (@EurasiaGroup) February 6, 2025

Former US Republican Congressman Charles W. Dent also commented that the decision would hand a “major victory to China,” and US Senator Chris Murphy highlighted China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) as an example of China's already significant influence. The BRI is China's mega international development project where it invested USD 679 billion between 2013 and 2022, primarily in Global Majority countries. He warned:

China wants to completely control the piping of the global economy within the next quarter century, and the erasure of USAID could help make that nightmare a reality.

In fact, US political news outlet Politico reported that China had reached out to affected countries, offering to help:

“China is already reaching out to partners,” said Francisco Benscosme, who served as USAID’s China policy lead during the Biden admin. “They will fill in the void in places like Cambodia and Nepal, & those are just the places we know about.” https://t.co/ZfqB9ZzRCp

— Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 🇺🇦 (@BonnieGlaser) February 11, 2025

USAID-related conspiracies and rumours on Chinese social media

While it is too soon to see if China will replace the US in terms of geopolitical leadership, Beijing is happy to see the dismantling of the USAID, with its online nationalists echoing and amplifying Elon Musk’s conspiracy theories and false claims about the agency. Here is a popular Weibo post about USAID:

马斯克正式关闭美国国际开发暑。揭露这个机构这么多年在背后罪恶滔天罪行，支助生物武器如新冠病毒和反人类病毒，支助恐怖分子。支助他国颜色革命，干扰他国家内政。

Musk has officially shut down USAID and revealed serious crimes committed by the agency, including sponsoring bio-weapons such as the COVID-19 virus and other anti-human viruses, supporting terrorists, the color revolution, and intervening in other countries’ internal affairs.

On Twitter, Elon Musk accused USAID of funding bioweapon research, including the COVID-19 virus in China. His groundless claim was taken as fact and went viral on Chinese social media. While the USAID did fund pandemic research in China, the project was meant to ensure transparency around virus detection and reporting. The allegation related to “funding terrorists” is connected to Musk's false claim about the agency spending USD 50 million on condoms in Gaza. As for his claim about a “colour revolution,” this is a political term used by communist states to describe civil society organizations’ work to bring political change with foreign governments’ backing.

Trump’s hostility towards mainstream media and false claims about USAID’s funding of professional media outlets, in particular its spending of USD 8.2 million on Politico, has also been used by Beijing to discredit Western media outlets’ critical reports about China:

Shocking revelations just exposed Western media for what they really are: paid mouthpieces for the US government. USAID has funneled huge sums into media organizations like BBC, Politico and AP. This explains the rampant anti-China narratives. The so-called “free and fair” image… pic.twitter.com/cWMFnxu5ZD

— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) February 7, 2025

All these false allegations about USAID have also reinforced the anti-US narrative on Chinese social media, which depicts the US as an evil force that undermines the world’s peace and stability. The following tweet is a typical example of the widespread belief among Chinese nationalists:

美国是文化霸权、颜色革命、种族冲突、恐怖主义、病毒传播的策源地！

同意的点赞👍！ pic.twitter.com/yBQgJJDaMK

— 豫章信使 (@Snofy8) February 10, 2025

The US is the headquarter and source of cultural hegemony, colour revolution, ethnic conflicts, terrorism and the pandemic!

As USAID’s role in advancing the US’s soft power has been established, individuals and organizations that the agency has funded have become targets of a smear campaign that discredits their work. For example, Internews, a global news non-profit funded by USAID and one of the world's largest independent media funders, is now perceived by many on both English and Chinese social media platforms as a media extension of the US government and proof of USAID's “corruption.”

While Internews is not active in Chinese-speaking regions, pro-Beijing influencers fabricate connections between USAID and political dissents and media outlets to prove that the U.S. government has similar operations across Chinese-speaking communities.

💥 According to data released by the US, rumor media outlets that defame and slander China, such as The Epoch Times, Shen Yun, Radio Free Asia, and the Global Taiwan Institute, have received direct funding from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). pic.twitter.com/nPomq38VkE

— Yin MR (@YinZP365) February 9, 2025

Radio Free Asia is funded by the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), not USAID. Both the Epoch Times, a pro-Trump media outlet that spreads misinformation about vaccines and the COVID-19 virus, and Shen Yun (an Art group) are affiliated with Falun Gong, an overseas Chinese religious group funded directly by the US State Department in 2010 and by USAGM around 2020 for developing internet circumvention tools. As for the Global Taiwan Institute, Global Voices has not found any public record showing that it is funded by USAID.

Pro-Beijing influencers also accused 14 Taiwanese NGOs working on human rights, fact-checking, and LGBTQ+ rights of receiving USAID funding and thereby serving the US government’s interests under the false claim that their funder, the Open Society Foundation (OSF), which was established by American philanthropist Geroge Soros, was funded by USAID. OSF issued a statement in response:

The claims that the Open Society Foundations, founded by George Soros, receive funding from USAID or direct the funding of a multibillion-dollar U.S. government agency are manifestly false. These allegations are part of a broader effort to undermine international development work and delegitimize the independent funding of civil society organizations worldwide.

As the Trump administration continues to attack USAID’s projects to justify the US's withdrawal from international development work, it also fuels smear campaigns backed by authoritarian governments against civil society organizations to demonize their work. That's why the Chinese online nationalists are cheering for Trump and Musk.