Pakistan held its number one position in the 2024 iteration of The China Index, which measures the influence of the PRC across the Globe. Screenshot from the China Index Site. Fair use.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a USD 62 billion infrastructure and energy development project which launched in 2015, has become a source of conflict and tension, particularly in the Balochistan province in Southern Pakistan. Despite its ambitious economic goals, the project faces persistent security challenges and has generated resentment in some local communities, leading to violence.

Chinese nationals have been targeted, including the November 2024 Karachi airport attack and a shooting at a Karachi facility employing foreign workers. These incidents highlight deep-rooted grievances over perceived resource exploitation in the region, enforced disappearances, community neglect, and exclusion from decision-making processes.

The China Index 2024 examined China's influence in 98 countries and ranked Pakistan as the country that is most exposed to China's influence globally.

The CPEC Roadway Network. Image via the Government of Pakistan. Public Domain.

CPEC hailed as a progress

The Pakistani government is advancing the CPEC, a 3,000-kilometre Chinese infrastructure project, which includes developing a deep-water port at Gwadar and establishing a road and rail network connecting the city to Xinjiang, China. As a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this would provide a shortcut via the Gwadar port, boosting trade between Europe, the Middle East and China. The project also aims to address electricity shortages and help the country pivot from an agriculture-based to an industrial economic structure. However, the persistent violence has hampered progress and raised concerns about its long-term viability.

Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province, is making strides in employment. Initiatives like #BUITEMS Job Fair and NIC #Quetta are unlocking opportunities, while #CPEC projects such as Gwadar Port and Quetta-Zhob Road have created 10,000 local jobs. Growth in agriculture,… pic.twitter.com/2G2NCAUqcQ

— The Balochistan Diaries (TBD) (@BalochDiaries) January 11, 2025

Security challenges and violent resistance

Pakistan has become particularly perilous for Chinese nationals, with 14 incidents which took 20 lives unfolding over the last year. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a major ethnonationalist militant group in the province, has been a regular offender. The BLA has long advocated autonomy for Balochistan, hoping to resolve issues over political marginalisation, economic exploitation, and disputes over resource control. These rebel actions have intensified as part of a larger battle against the perceived tyranny of the Pakistani government and enforced disappearances. The government’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances reports 2,752 active cases in the province as of January 2024, while Pakistan’s government maintains that only about 50 people are missing.

The assaults against Chinese workers are connected to the BLA's hostility to China's engagement in Balochistan's development projects, notably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which locals believe is increasing their political and economic marginalisation.

Despite promises of infrastructural development, reports from The Express Tribune and The Diplomat indicate that the CPEC has not benefitted the region's socio-economic dynamics. An October 2024 World Bank Report indicates that, while CPEC seeks to improve infrastructure in Balochistan, it has mostly expedited resource exploitation and delivered little benefit to neighbouring residents.

Activist Ambreen Baloch posted on X (formerly Twitter):

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (#CPEC) is often viewed as a pathway to development, yet it primarily serves the interests of #China‘s elite. In #Balochistan, locals face marginalization despite abundant mineral wealth, as benefits bypass them. pic.twitter.com/dlrAj0bjkL

— Ambreen Baloch (@baloch_ambreen) January 14, 2025

This unrest, fuelled by a combination of local grievances and wider national and international concerns, has caused instability in the region, which has hurt foreign investment.

According to a 2024 Balochistan Human Rights Commission report, Chinese corporations prioritise resource exploitation, environmental damage, and money over people's lives, while the Pakistani authorities continue to promote Chinese interests.

Mineral deposits in rocks in arid Balochistan. Image by Rinam Fatima via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0.

As Pakistan gets closer to China with the help of the CPEC initiatives, other countries in South Asia, like India, are becoming concerned and wary of China's growing influence in the region. Researcher Zeus Hans Mendez noted that regional animosities also enable militant activities in Balochistan.

Many in Balochistan commemorate the anniversary of mass graves discovered in the Khuzdar district on January 25, 2014, and this year's event was marred by internet shutdowns and other government repressions.

Journalist Basam Baloch posted on X about the shutdown:

A peaceful rally is going to be held in #Dalbandin just few to unite, raise awareness among the Baloch, where relatives of the forcibly disappeared Families are also present, but even then the guilty #Pakistan has shut down internet service #BalochGenocideRemembranceDay pic.twitter.com/blQKQevmyc

— بشام بلوچ (@Basham1Baloch) January 25, 2025

China's concern about their workers

Chinese authorities have frequently criticised the security of their staff and projects in Pakistan. After the Karachi attack in November 2024, the Chinese Foreign Ministry voiced concern for Pakistan's security, heightening diplomatic tensions as China advocates for more security measures. Although Pakistan has enhanced security around CPEC significant points, these measures were not enough to avoid the violence, indicating the glaring weakness in Pakistan's security apparatus. Because of Pakistan’s internal socio-security issues and the local situation, even with long-standing cooperation with China, it is difficult for the country to secure the living and investments of its own people as well as foreigners. This situation demoralises international investors and, in turn, raises doubts about Pakistan’s capability to maintain internal stability in such a complex political environment.

Journalist Asad Ali Toor highlighted on X:

Wang Shengjie, #China’s political secretary to Pakistan, voiced unusually candid criticism of #Pakistan,
“If the security is not improved, who would come and work in this environment? There is hatred against the Chinese in Gwadar and #Balochistan,” he said https://t.co/BibFAIV2Ao

— Asad Ali Toor (@AsadAToor) January 26, 2025

The future of CPEC

The people of the Balochistan region have been generally politically disenchanted and economically deprived for a long time. Sadly, for most of the Baloch people, the implementation of CPEC projects has only amplified a sense of marginalisation. According to a 2024 Human Rights Watch (HRW) report, the people of Balochistan are sceptical of CPEC and do not believe they are receiving positive economic outcomes from the project.

Academics Hong Zhang and Ammar A. Malik suggested in a paper published in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs in December 2024 that Pakistan and China should adopt a more open approach to advance the CPEC. Acknowledging past shortcomings in Pakistan's security can help rebuild trust and foster dialogue. They also opined that expanding coordination mechanisms to include input from local stakeholders and experts is essential for fostering local ownership.