What’s in store for Myanmar in 2025?

Chin Brotherhood

Chin Brotherhood troops after seizing Matupi in Myanmar. Photo by Chin Brotherhood. Source: The Irrawaddy, content partner of Global Voices

This article was originally published on January 7, 2025, on The Irrawaddy, an independent news website in Myanmar that has been exiled in Thailand since the military coup in 2021. An edited version is republished on Global Voices as part of a content-sharing agreement.

There will be a change in 2025. This is what analysts are reporting from Myanmar citizens both inside and outside the war-torn country, which has been in a state of turmoil since the military seized power in a coup in February 2021. Will a new federal democratic nation or a failed, disintegrated, and fractured Myanmar emerge from the conflict?

Indeed, it is difficult to gauge where the country is headed in 2025 other than to expect that it will slide further into darkness and economic hardship with the spread of armed conflict to central Myanmar.

So, what changes will come? Political analysts say that major political events could take place. Here are events on the horizon in 2025 that may influence the fate of the nation.

Election

Will this year bring an election? Or political negotiations? Or bloodshed? Activists and watermelons (junta soldiers spying for the pro-democracy movement) inside the armed forces say they are determined to see the removal of regime leader Min Aung Hlaing. If this is the case, who will do so? The ethnic armed opposition is striving to end the military dictatorship. Powerful ethnic armies and insurgent groups are maneuvering to advance their agendas and have so far achieved many military victories as well as territorial gains.

Will we see the fall of Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State, before Armed Forces Day on March 27? Victorious ethnic leaders announcing autonomous regions in Rakhine, Chin, and Kachin?

If so, we might see the implosion of the military and the fall of the State Administration Council (SAC). What about the release of detained government leaders, including detained former President Aung San Suu Kyi, who is now 80? If not, might we see her secret burial in an unknown place? Or, more optimistically, will we see the convening of a major political convention to draw up a road map ahead of an election? Then what about the intervention of neighbours, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led “peacekeeping forces” endorsed by China?

The junta has vowed to hold the election according to an arbitrary timeline, and China said it would back the vote. Many in the opposition have dismissed the election, and critics doubt it can be held under current circumstances. The opposition has rejected the election since it won’t be free, fair, or inclusive, serving merely to extend military rule. Acting as a counterpoint to this are the opposition forces, including the National Unity Government (NUG), seeking to demonstrate that they are united and offer a credible alternative to the regime. Instead of seeking recognition, the NUG should continue to build support among ethnic alliances and demonstrate that it is a viable alternative to the junta.

Military junta losing ground

In 2024, Myanmar military forces witnessed significant losses despite pessimistic analyses from experts on Myanmar. The military’s Northeast Command in Shan State, adjacent to China, and its Western Command in Rakhine State, bordering Bangladesh, were captured by resistance forces, with senior military officers and thousands of soldiers either killed or surrendering, along with substantial quantities of ammunition, weapons, armored vehicles, artillery, and tanks.

The military’s Light Infantry Divisions (LIDs), once feared and admired when they served under former dictator General Ne Win against ethnic insurgents and Burmese communists, faced humiliating defeats in the last two years in Shan, Kachin, Kayah, and Rakhine states.

Thus, the regime has relied heavily on its air force. Now, the regime is deeply dependent on China to halt the offensive and to contain the war and ethnic armed organizations based along the China-Myanmar border.

In any case, the good news is the military is in a state of decline; it is weak and shrinking. The military has seen a wave of desertions, defeats, low morale, and loss of dignity. With rising resentment in the ranks, opposition figures speculate regime leaders could face assassination or overthrow.

It is important to note that most of the Burman population has shown no sign of regret or sorrow over the losses and major defeats experienced by Myanmar’s armed forces, which they once respected. Rather, they are experiencing schadenfreude — something unprecedented in the modern history of Myanmar’s armed forces. The opposition, whether Burman or ethnic armed groups fighting the regime, enjoy public support. Indeed, this is a watershed moment for the Myanmar military.

Myanmar’s economic outlook remains bleak. According to the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor, Myanmar’s GDP is expected to contract by one percent in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a downward revision from the previous projection of modest growth. Due to the coup and forced conscription, Myanmar also suffered from brain drain as many young people sought to leave the country.

When it comes to natural disasters (or pandemics), Myanmar is ill-prepared for an increasingly worsening climate. It is one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, according to reports from the World Bank, United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM), and researchers.

Neighbors’ nightmare

China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand are getting restless about Myanmar’s deteriorating situation. Thailand and other neighbors are extremely concerned with border security, increasing drug production and transnational cybercrimes, as well as the flow of refugees and growing exile communities. So, aside from the toothless ASEAN, who will intervene in the Myanmar crisis? China? India? Thailand? China, the most influential external actor in Myanmar, has officially backed the election and is keeping its options open as the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.

Unlike the US, China has serious geopolitical strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly around maintaining access to the Indian Ocean. Beijing wants to bring an end to the Myanmar crisis, but on its own terms and in a way that serves these interests.

Some analysts think China wants to see leadership change in the military (but not the collapse of the military) to end the reign of commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. Perhaps China thinks the election may pave the way for Min Aung Hlaing to depart from politics. Or is he preparing to leave? The generals believe they should be the ones running the country, and thus, they will not depart easily unless they are forced out or find a durable political compromise.

Bangladesh will not see any chance to repatriate Rohingya refugees in 2025. Now, the Myanmar regime is recruiting Rohingya to counter the rising Arakan Army (the AA, an ethno-nationalist group), which controls almost the entire Rakhine State. The United League of Arakan, the political wing of the AA, has expressed a commitment to establishing an autonomous region in Rakhine.

How will Bangladesh respond to the AA’s consolidation of Rakhine State? What about Muslim extremists? Both Myanmar and Bangladesh are fragile states, and Myanmar’s disintegration will only deepen tension and conflict between the two countries.

In any case, at the end of the day, political negotiation will be the key, but the fighting will not end quickly, as Burman opposition and ethnic armies know that their continued military success will give them more political leverage in future negotiations.

Happy ending?

Last but not least, we would like to congratulate the people of Myanmar; they are the heroes who have kept faith and hope alive in this revolution as it prepares to enter its fifth year.

We all are living in depressing times, and we are exhausted, but many in Myanmar hope that the murderous regime will be toppled soon or that some miracle will occur to make them disappear.

However unstable the world, Myanmar citizens deserve attention and applause for their perseverance, resilience and fighting spirit! They refuse to accept the return of military rule and the status quo.

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