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From December 16, 2024, Moldova has introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector. The main reason for the emergency is that no one in Moldova knows whether Gazprom, the Russian state energy corporation, will continue supplying Russian gas to the Transnistrian region of Moldova after January 1, 2025. Therefore, Chișinău and Tiraspol are preparing for the worst-case scenarios. NewsMaker answers key questions about the energy crisis in this article, which has been translated, edited and republished with permission from NewsMaker.

Could Moldova run out of gas?

Gas supply to the right bank of Moldova is not at risk of being cut off. The problem of gas supply concerns only Transnistria.

Since the end of 2022, Chișinău has been purchasing gas for the right bank of the Dniester on the international market. On Friday, December 13, the company Moldovagaz announced that it had purchased all the gas needed for the right bank until the end of March next year.

Gas supply to Transnistria after January 1, 2025, is under threat. Currently, all Russian gas supplied by Gazprom — 5.7 million cubic meters per day — is directed to the region, where it is used both for internal consumption and to meet the needs of the Moldavskaya GRES power plant, which generates electricity for both banks of the Dniester. Transnistria does not pay for the gas consumed.

Why might Gazprom stop supplying gas?

The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine’s territory expires on January 1, 2025.  Despite the war between Russia and Ukraine, gas transit and the contract signed in 2019 have continued. Kyiv has repeatedly stated that it does not plan to extend the transit agreement with Gazprom.

In addition to Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria also receive gas through Ukraine.

Previously, Moldovan authorities and experts assumed that gas transit would continue if European companies, rather than Gazprom or its affiliates, paid for the gas transport through Ukraine.

However, it appears that the transit through Ukraine will not be extended. 

There is an alternative route for Russian gas delivery to Transnistria: from Russia to Turkey via the TurkStream pipeline, then through Bulgaria, Romania, and partially through Ukraine’s Odesa region. For deliveries via this route, Gazprom needs to book pipeline capacity.

December 16 was the last date by which Gazprom could book capacity for January 2025. As Interfax reported on the December 18, Gazprom did not book it. 

What does Gazprom say? Do they want to continue supplying gas?

Gazprom has not commented on the future gas supply to Moldova.  Gazprom's position can only be inferred from statements made by former Energy Minister Victor Parlicov, who recently met with Gazprom head Alexey Miller. According to him, Gazprom links further gas supply to the debt of the right bank of the Dniester for gas. Both sides have vastly different numbers for the amount of debt: Russia cites a figure exceeding USD 700 million, while Chișinău claims it is ready to pay just over USD 8 million based on an independent audit.

What are the chances of gas supply to Transnistria being cut off?

No one knows. Although Gazprom might know, it’s unlikely they will make it public soon. Transnistrian authorities do not rule out that the gas supply issue may be resolved on New Year's Eve. They, too, have declared an emergency in the economy.

What happens if Transnistria is left without Russian gas?

Problems will arise on both banks of the Dniester. The left bank will be left without gas — the main fuel for heating — while the right bank will face serious electricity issues.

Chișinău could supply gas to Transnistria but only in exchange for timely payment, according to the government. However, the internal gas prices in Transnistria are several times lower than on the right bank: less than MDL 1 (USD 0.05) per cubic meter of gas compared to MLD 16.74 (USD 0.91) on the right bank.

Transnistria, it seems, is preparing for life without gas. Local authorities are working on a plan for enterprises and municipal infrastructure in case of a gas outage.

For Chișinău, the main problem is electricity. During winter, Moldavskaya GRES accounts for 70 percent of the electricity consumed by right-bank Moldova. The rest comes from thermal power plants in Chișinău and Bălți, renewable energy sources, and imports from Romania. If gas supplies cease, Moldavskaya GRES will not be able to generate electricity for the right bank

Will there still be electricity?

As mentioned earlier, Moldavskaya GRES will not be able to generate electricity for the right bank of the Dniester. In an emergency, Transnistrian authorities plan to switch Moldavskaya GRES to coal. However, this also poses challenges: during the transition to coal, the region may face a 10-hour blackout.

Moreover, the coal reserves in Transnistria are sufficient for only 50 days, and the plant can only operate on coal sourced from Donbas. Two years ago, Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky stated, “This plant can only work on Donetsk coal. The coal that was imported before 2014 is enough for two and a half months. It is physically impossible to deliver more now.”

Moldova could buy gas and supply it to Moldavskaya GRES for electricity generation, but this would require significant funds. Media reports suggest that Chișinău estimates this would cost around EUR 240 million.

Why can’t Moldova simply purchase electricity from Romania?

Moldova has a quota for importing electricity from Romania, which might not be sufficient. Additionally, it would have to compete on the Romanian market with Ukraine.

Moldova experienced a similar situation in November 2022, when it purchased all its electricity from Romania. At that time, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was in much better condition, and Moldova could use Ukraine’s quota for electricity delivery.

Two years later, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has significantly deteriorated due to mass Russian attacks, and the neighboring country now imports electricity itself.

Technically, Moldova can exceed its import quota, but this would require paying for “uncontrolled flows” at very high rates.

Are blackouts possible?

In such a crisis, their likelihood will increase. Authorities recently adopted a Regulation on Emergency Situations in the Energy Sector. The document outlines priority electricity consumers in case of potential rolling blackouts.

Priority consumers include:

1. Republican, regional, district, and municipal hospitals, the Emergency Medical Center, the Blood Transfusion Center, the National Public Health Agency, orphanages, and kindergartens
2. Gas metering and pumping stations, and central heating systems for residential sectors
3. Dispatchers of energy and utility providers
4. Government buildings, parliament, the presidential administration, the Ministry of Defense, the Intelligence and Security Service (SIB), the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Emergency Inspectorate, the State Protection Service, and the Customs Service
5. Airports and other transport infrastructure

Household consumers rank only eighth in priority.

In Transnistria, local energy providers have also developed a plan for potential rolling blackouts.

At the moment, the state of emergency in Moldova is declared for 60 days. Ukraine, in response to growing concerns on gas transit, said it was eager to continue transiting gas, as long as it is not from Russia.