A girl on the march on Freedom Day of Belarus 2023 in Warsaw.  Photo by Andrew Keymaster on Unsplash.

On Thursday August 1, there was a  prisoner exchange between Russia and several Western countries.  According to media reports, 24 people were involved, including the pardoned German, Rico Krieger, in Belarus. However, none of the other Belarusian political prisoners were part of the exchange. 

A lot of Belarusian social media users expressed feelings of both sadness and loss of hope, with one saying, “We were so hoping that – what if – Masha too […] But there was no one to break the birch tree.”

Masha, short for Maria, refers to political activist and musician Maria Kalesnikava, who was sentenced in 2021 to 11 years in a penal colony for her political activities.

Photo of Maria Kalesnikava, By GomelTube –  Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.

The birch tree, meanwhile, references a tragic song by Alexander Bashlachev, a Soviet poet, singer-songwriter and guitarist who is considered to be one of the most influential figures in Russian rock music. Taking a cue from a traditional folk song about a birch tree, Bashlachev's version, written in 1986, laments people being locked up as prisoners.

Maria Kalesnikava played a significant role in the united campaign of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition candidate who stood against Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenka in 2020. She was a member of the presidium of the Coordination Council, a non-governmental body formed by Tsikhanouskaya during the 2020 Belarusian protests against Lukashenka's regime. Its aim was to facilitate a democratic transfer of power in Belarus, but the results of that year's election showed Lukashenka winning by a landslide, a claim Tsikhanouskaya challenges.

On September 7, 2020, Kalesnikava was kidnapped by unidentified law enforcement officers. The following morning, she was forcibly taken to the Ukrainian border. Despite being intimidated and pressured to leave Belarus, Kalesnikava tore her passport to pieces while on neutral ground, exited the car through the rear window, and walked back into Belarusian territory, where she was immediately arrested. 

Amnesty International recognized Kalesnikava as a prisoner of conscience on September 11, 2020. She received the International Women of Courage Award in 2021.

The last time anyone heard from Kalesnikava was on February 12, 2023, leading some to fear that she might be dead. Radio Liberty correspondent Sergei Medvedev wrote on Facebook, “I hoped until the end, but just as Putin could not let Navalny live, Lukashenka cannot release Kalesnikava — it's personal. I'm afraid she is no longer alive either.”

As Hanna Liubakova, a Belarusian journalist in exile, wrote for the Atlantic Council, while Russia may have regained some of its agents through Krieger’s exchange, Lukashenka appears to be jeopardizing his relationship with Germany to align with Putin’s interests.

This, Liubakova suggests, reflects Lukashenka’s past concessions to Russia, such as allowing Belarusian territory to be used for the invasion of Ukraine despite his people's opposition, and hosting Wagner Group troops in Belarus.

Amid these high-stakes negotiations, the plight of Belarusian political prisoners is often overlooked. Although 18 political prisoners were released last month, an estimated 1,400 remain imprisoned, with many urgently needing medical assistance.