Taiwanese ex-president Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to China sparks speculation · Global Voices
Oiwan Lam

Image from Ma Ying-jeou's Facebook.
Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is set to visit China between March 27 and April 7, 2023. The trip marks the first cross-strait visit by a former or current top leader of the island since 1949, when the Kuomintang political party (KMT) of the Republic of China (ROC) was exiled to Taiwan after its defeat by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the Chinese civil war.
While Taiwan has been a de facto autonomous political entity since 1949, because the CPC's People's Republic of China replaced the ROC in the United Nations in 1971 as the sole representative of China, the majority of countries in the world do not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Taiwan is also facing near continuous threat from China. When Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-Taiwan independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidential election in 2016, the PRC threatened the island with economic sanctions and military drills.
Now that Taiwan is looking to its next presidential election on January 13, 2024, observers are speculating how cross-straight relations might be affected. Although the KMT, which is in alignment with the “One China” principle, won big in last year’s local elections, the results of the upcoming presidential election hinge on whether the KMT can resolve cross-straight tensions without jeopardizing the island’s autonomy.
Ma’s mainland visit has sparked political speculation as he remains an iconic figure of the KMT.  Although Ma stressed the aim of the trip is for ancestor worship at the Qingming Festival on April 6 and cross-strait exchanges among college students funded by his foundation, sources said that he will unofficially meet with Chinese officials. Chris Horton, a Taiwan-based journalist, tweeted:
Lots of KMT-CCP meetings lately. Ma Ying-jeou going to meet with Wang Huning in Shanghai during his China trip. Wang heads CCP united front work, and is reportedly crafting Beijing's philosophical justification for destroying Taiwanese sovereignty. https://t.co/c0GQRyXNOn
— Chris Horton 何貴森 (@heguisen) March 20, 2023
In addition, Ma’s trip is occurring in parallel with current President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to Central America, which includes a stopover in the United States.
Taiwan confirmed Tuesday that President Tsai Ing-wen will transit the United States en route to Central America at the end of the month, but there was no official word on if a highly anticipated meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will take place.https://t.co/AYfTsLRHnA
— Eric Cheung (@EricCheungwc) March 21, 2023
China expressed strong opposition to Tsai Ing-wen’s diplomatic visits and stopover, claiming that the visits violated the “One China Principle” and served as an attempt to propagate “Taiwan independence.” Officials openly welcomed Ma’s visit.
In response to Ma’s plan, the DDP accused Ma and the KMT of embracing China and working with the CCP’s United Front authorities. On the other hand, the KMT downplayed the political nature of the trip and stressed the cultural and academic exchange aspect:
Former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou will head to China next week, the first trip by a former president in seven decades.
The KMT released this graphic to explain the trip.
It’ll be fascinating to see what issues & academic exchanges come of it. pic.twitter.com/MomK7R4vZU
— Tim Culpan (@tculpan) March 19, 2023
A number of KMT politicians, such as KMT lawmaker Lai Shyh-bao, pointed out that ex-Premier Frank Hsieh Chang-ting of the DPP had also visited mainland China for ancestral worship back in 2012 without facing any accusations. Another KMT lawmaker, Cheng Li-wun, stressed that Ma’s visit exemplifies the KMT’s political stances: “pro-US, friendly with Japan and peace with mainland China.”
However, many believe the KMT won't be able to maintain the political tightrope it's trying to walk. Yaita Akio, a Japanese journalist based in Taiwan, addressed the political implications of Ma Ying-jeou’s mainland tour via his Facebook page.
好像是在向全世界大聲宣布，台灣不僅有「親美派」，也有「親中派」。[…] 人大剛剛結束，新政府就迎來了台灣的前總統，說明習主席的對台灣政策”是正確的、是受到了台灣大多數人民支持的”，因為國民黨在不久前剛剛贏了九合一地方選舉。…當然也有輸家。最大的輸家應該是國民黨吧？據各種民調，台灣民眾對中國不喜歡、或者不信任的人已經越來越多，遠遠超過半數。這個時候馬英九去中國，又不敢把台灣民眾的真實聲音傳遞給中國。這使得國民黨現在正在競爭總統大位的幾個人灰頭土臉，受到影響頗大。
This is like telling the world Taiwan has a “pro-US camp” and a “pro-China camp” […]  China’s National People Congress just closed and the new government cabinet which is now in office is greeted by the former Taiwanese President. It demonstrates that President Xi’s policy toward Taiwan is “correct and supported by the majority of the people in Taiwan” because the KMT won the nine-in-one local elections just not long ago. […] Of course, there are losers. The biggest one should be KMT, right? According to various polls, more and more people in Taiwan dislike or distrust China, far more than half of them. Ma Ying-jeou won’t dare tell Beijing the genuine desire of the Taiwanese people on his trip and hence will splash dirt onto KMT's current presidential contenders and bring adverse effects [to the KMT’s election campaign].
Exiled mainland Chinese activist Wang Dang shared similar views:
馬英九要奉召北上了。從副主席到前總統，國民黨組團去北京覲見習團隊的熱潮，來到了新的高度。這是習近平最需要的登基賀禮，國民黨可以說是加碼進貢。… https://t.co/eAi9jalcOU
— 王丹 (@wangdan1989) March 19, 2023
Ma Ying-Jeou has been called on call to visit China. From the party’s deputy chair to the former president, KMT is reaching new levels in its tour to meet Xi’s cabinet. This is a desperate gift to Xi Jinping’s throne, and the KMT is really paying a big tribute…
Last month, KMT’s deputy chair, Andrew Hsia, visited China and met with Song Tao, the new head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.
It is quite clear that KMT is eager to reestablish relations with China without upsetting Taiwan’s autonomy, yet Ma’s visit will be difficult, as mainland Chinese online nationalists are unlikely to give him a warm welcome due to the KMT’s waffling position regarding Taiwan's autonomy. This played out through various Weibo debates, as one Weibo influencer with more than two million followers foretold that Ma would be asked if he supports Taiwan's reunification with China:
看来马英九访问大陆的行程安排，应该是确定了。两岸关系发展到现在，我觉得双方的民意腾挪空间，已经非常有限。马英九到大陆后，最终将面临一个终极问题，即“马先生你支持统一吗？”
如果这个问题他不愿回答，或者左右闪烁不愿直面，他的这趟大陆之行，对我们来讲没有意义。
It seems that Ma Ying-jeou’s mainland trip has been confirmed. There is little space for changing public opinions across the straits. Ma will face an ultimate question on his trip: Mr. Ma, do you support reunification with China?”
If he is not willing to answer this question, or if he avoids a straightforward answer, his mainland trip will be totally meaningless…
The most popular comment following the post even blamed Ma for paving the way for the rise of pro-Taiwan independence DPP:
老马是独台，在其任内毒教材愈加横行，批量产生天然毒，武器照买，只是嘴上承认九二共识，实质动作一点都没少，一个劲的狠撸大陆羊毛。也是历史罪人之一…
Ma is pro-Taiwan independence. During his presidential period, the school texts were flooded with pro-independent materials and this nurtured a pro-independent generation. He also bought weapons [from the US]. He just pays lip service to the 1992 Consensus [One China consensus between CCP and KMT signed in 1992] and harvests from China. He is one of the sinners of the history…
Ma Ying-jeou was in the Taiwan presidential office from October 2008 to December 2016 with 58 percent of the votes. His first presidential trip was to Latin America, with a number of stopovers in the US. As for cross-strait relations, his position was, “no reunification, no independence, and no war.” During his presidency, Ma relaxed many restrictions on trade and investment with China. One year before he completed his presidential term, he met with mainland Chinese president Xi Jinping in Singapore.