On July 1, 2020, the World Bank changed Tanzania's income classification from a low-income to a lower-middle-income country, sparking a national debate on the meaning of development and how to measure it.
President John Magufuli announced the World Bank’s updated classification on Twitter, explaining that Tanzania had reached a “middle-income” status five years before its intended goal of 2025.
Benki ya Dunia leo tarehe 01 Julai, 2020 imeitangaza Tanzania kuingia UCHUMI WA KATI.Nawapongeza Watanzania wenzangu kwa mafanikio haya.Huu ni ushindi mkubwa na kazi kubwa tumeifanya, tulipanga kuingia uchumi wa kati ifikapo 2025 lakini tumefanikiwa 2020.MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA
— Dr John Magufuli (@MagufuliJP) July 1, 2020
Today, July 1, 2020, the World Bank announced that Tanzania has become a middle-income country. I congratulate my Tanzanian colleagues for this achievement. This is a big feat that we have accomplished and important work that we have done, since we planned on becoming a middle-income country in 2025 but succeeded in 2020. God bless Tanzania.
Some Tanzanias — particularly supporters of Tanzania’s ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi or Revolutionary Party (CCM) — lauded Magufuli for his early achievement. But critics argue that the World Bank’s updated classification did not accurately reflect the lives of most Tanzanians and did not align with first Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere’s vision of human-centered development.
A few netizens speculated about their glitzier weekend plans now that they had reached middle-income status. Tanzania’s CCM-affiliated Minister of Tourism and Natural Resources, Hamisi Kigwangalla, jokingly thanked small-scale miner Saniniu Laizer, who recently made international headlines for discovering two large Tanzanite stones and becoming an overnight billionaire, for the country’s reclassification from low-income to lower-middle-income:
Ahsante Mungu kwa kutupa bilionea Laizer! 🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿 pic.twitter.com/uTahqA6cm5
— Dr. Kigwangalla, H. (@HKigwangalla) July 3, 2020
Thank you, God, for giving us Billionaire Laizer!
Increased GNI — and people living in poverty?
Tanzania’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita — a measure of a country’s average income per resident — went up from $1,020 in 2018 to $1,080 in 2019, which put it above the World Bank’s current threshold for lower-middle-income status. GNI per capita is the total income of a country's residents and businesses divided by the country's population.
Drawing attention to the shortcomings of GNI per capita, writer Dotto Rangimoto tweeted a hypothetical breakdown of how GNI per capita is calculated:
Mnapoambiwa Mido Inkamu Kantri muwe mnaelewa maana yake si kushangilia tu kama @hpolepole aliyeamua kuuza utu wake.
Pato la wastani la kila mtu ni 329 pic.twitter.com/4yag5Hk9fX
— Dotto Rangimoto (@JiniKinyonga) July 5, 2020
When you are told “middle-income country,” you have to understand what that means rather than simply rejoice, like @hpolepole, who has decided to sell his own personhood. For example, say that
1. Mo earns $1,000
2. Bakheresa earns $900
3. Rostam earns $700
4. I earn $14
5. You earn $18
6. My child earns $0
7. Your child earns $0
Total: $2,632 $2,632/8=$329
Average income per person: $329
Dotto tweeted a few hypothetical incomes, illustrating how the high incomes of a few could inflate the GNI per capita measure so that it would become an inaccurate measure of a typical Tanzanian’s income.
On July 11, the World Bank Tanzania tweeted that the number of Tanzanians living in poverty had gone up from 12 million people in 2012 to 14 million people in 2018, primarily because of population growth:
#EndPoverty #DYK 🤔
Because the #Tanzania population grew faster than poverty was reduced in 2018, about 14 million Tanzanians lived in poverty, up from 13 million in 2007 and 12 million in 2012: https://t.co/hycs0OGuJ7 pic.twitter.com/VOqHHwJN56
— World Bank Tanzania (@WBTanzania) July 11, 2020
In the aftermath of the World Bank's improved designation of Tanzania as a lower-middle-income country, the reality of an increased number of people living in poverty sparked confusion:
Nyari on Twitter asked:
Sasa hapa tunaelewaje, tupo kwenye uchumi mdogo wa kati au ndio maskini kabisa?
— Nyari (@munisi_alex) July 11, 2020
Help us to understand, are we really now a middle-income country, or are we still low-income?
The politics of development
John Heche, a parliamentarian from Tanzania’s opposition Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo or Party for Democracy and Progress (CHADEMA), tweeted laments about a “middle-income country without decent social services,” which he attributed to CCM leadership.
Heche included photographs of schoolchildren sitting on the floor in Mvomero District in southeastern Tanzania to illustrate his point:
Kelele nyingi, mbwembwe nyingi, miradi mikubwa, kununua ndege kwa cash wakati watoto wanakaa chini au hawana vyumba vya kutosha vya madarasa inachanganya sana.
Uchumi wa kati bila huduma bora za jamiii inafikirisha sana.
Mvomero,rais ccm, mbunge ccm, madiwani na halmashauri ccm. pic.twitter.com/X6XCJbDMsa
— John Heche (@HecheJohn) July 5, 2020
There’s been a lot of noise, a lot of affectation, large campaigns, and the buying of airplanes with cash, all while school children are forced to sit on the floor and don’t have enough classrooms, which is very confusing. A middle-income country without decent social services is cause for reflection. [The problems in] Mvomero District exist in the midst of a CCM president, a CCM member of parliament, a CCM council, and CCM council members.
In response to John Heche’s tweet, CCM supporter Besta Mlagila retorted:
Tangu Serikali ya awamu ya tano imeingia madarakani Idadi ya vyumba vya madarasa imeongezeka kutoka madarasa 1710 hadi madarasa 2533 sawa na ongezeko la vyumba 823 ikiongezwa tena miaka 5, itakuwa zaidi ya vyumba 3500. Na hiki ndicho kitakachotupa kura october. #MaguTena2020
— Besta Mlagila (@BestaMlagila) July 5, 2020
Since this fifth government came into power, the number of physical schoolrooms has grown from 1710 up to 2533. If an equivalent 823 schoolrooms are added again in another five years, there will be more than 3500 schoolrooms. And this is what will give us the vote in October. #Vote for Magufuli again in 2020.
Julius Nyerere led Tanzania from 1964-1985, during which he developed and implemented a socialist national development project called Ujamaa or “extended family-hood” in Swahili. The central policies and philosophical tenets of Nyerere’s Ujamaa included economic nationalization, collective farming, universal education, and communal self-reliance.
Twitter user Joo refers to Julius Nyerere’s human-centered approach to development:
Mwalimu Nyerere aliwahi sema maendeleo ni ya watu na siyo ya vitu, Uchumi wa kati unapimwa kwa madaraja na maghorofa, aya leo watoto wanakaa chini kila kona ya nchi hii.
— Joo (@10Magoti) July 5, 2020
Julius Nyerere once said that development is about people, not things. A country’s middle-income status is measured by its bridges and skyscrapers, even as schoolchildren today are sitting on the floor in every corner of this country.
Suphian Juma, an Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT) – Wazalendo Party parliamentary candidate for West Singida, shared a widely-circulated video of Nyerere commenting on the inability of traditional economic indicators to measure development:
Rais @MagufuliJP na Serikali yenu ya CCM wakati mnasherekea kinachoitwa “Tanzania imefikia Uchumi wa Kati”, jueni;
“Hatuwezi kusema nchi ina maendeleo na uchumi umekua wakati wananchi wake hawana uhuru, wanaogopa, wana hofu.” Mwl Nyerere. pic.twitter.com/SEHl3RFNbF
— Suphian Juma (@SuphianJuma) July 1, 2020
President Magufuli and our CCM government, while you are celebrating Tanzania's designation as a middle-income country, know this: “We can’t say that a country has development and that its economy has grown when its citizens lack freedom, are scared, and have fear.” -Julius Nyerere
With elections in October, Tanzania’s classification as a middle-income country has inspired debate on whether the improved designation reflects the experiences of most Tanzanians, — and how the country's political and economic past might inform the future.