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Honduras: The Beginning of the End of the Crisis?

The signing of the “Guaymuras Dialogue Agreement of San José/Tegucigalpa [es]” has opened the door to solving the crisis, which started on June 28, 2009 with the ousting of President Manuel Zelaya. The teams representing Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti signed the agreement on October 29, with the final backing of the United States, specifically the Sub-Secretary of Hemispheric Affairs, Thomas Shannon.

The agreement point that was debated the most and which had provoked the failure of previous dialogue attempts was whether or not to return Zelaya to power. This agreement would call for a power-sharing government and for both sides to recognize the results of the Presidential elections to be held on November 29. The signed deal is now in the hands of the National Congress, which must approve it and which is the same body that voted for Zelaya's removal more than 120 days ago.

Photo by NewsHour and used under a Creative Commons license

Photo by NewsHour and used under a Creative Commons license

The international community has praised the signed agreement. The Organization of American States supports the November general elections, as are the European Union and the United States, which also recently resumed the issuing of visas to the country, which had been a measure to pressure the Micheletti government.

In Honduras, there is a mix of hope and uncertainty. There is hope that the political, economic, and social crisis that the country has been living since June will finish as soon as possible, at least in this current state. There is uncertainty in that the return of Zelaya is still in the hands of the National Congress. There are reactions from Honduran blogs:

In the blog Nacer en Honduras [es], Ardegas writes “Will Zelaya be reinstated? That is the floating question,” and looks at some of the possible obstacles before he is returned to power. For example, Ardegas writes that the reinstatement will be ineffective if the Supreme Court does not suspend its pending orders for Zelaya's capture.

Juan Carlos Rivera of Mirada de Halcón [es] believes:

La crisis aún no ha terminado, el acuerdo es, a penas, la puerta hacia la resolución del conflicto. La inestabilidad, la convulsión social, continuará si no retorna Manuel Zelaya Rosales al poder. Esto no lo digo yo. Lo grita la gente que está en la calle. La mayoría de hondureños exige la reintegración del presidente que eligieron en noviembre de 2005.

The crisis is not yet over, the agreement is, barely, the door towards conflict resolution. The instability, social upheaval, will continue if Manuel Zelaya Rosales does not return to power. It is not I who is saying this. It is being yelled in the street. The majority of Hondurans demand the reinstatement of the president that they elected in November 2005.

In the blog Hibueras [es], Gustavo Zelaya calls the signing of the agreement a “Halfway Celebration?” and provides opinion about the interference of the United States in national affairs:

Esto era lo fundamental para muchos, en especial para los gringos encabezados por Shannon y para el resto de los candidatos presidenciales. Y aquí es donde se nota con toda claridad quiénes son los que mandan, ordenan, imponen y deciden en los asuntos nacionales. Ya no sólo les debemos la clasificación al mundial.

This was fundamental for many people, especially for the Americans led by Shannon and for the rest of the presidential candidates. It is here where it is clearly noted who in charge, who gives the orders, who enforces and decides in national matters. Now we don't only owe them (the United States) for the World Cup qualification.

Finally, the blog Honduras en el Mundo [es] writes that “Congress has us waiting:”

Hay que estar vigilantes, y espectantes, la restitución está cerca, pero no hay que confiarse, esperamos que los diputados del Congreso sean consecuentes con el país, que reparen el delito que cometieron, y solucionen este problema, para que de una buena vez sea revertido este golpe de Estado.

One must be vigilant and watchful, reinstatement is near, but one must not get too overconfident, let's hope that the Congressional deputies are consequential with the country, that they repair the crime that they committed, and solve this problem, so that once and for all the coup is reversed.
Translation by Eduardo Ávila

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