Georgia, Russia: “What's Next?”

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev announced the end of the so-called “peace enforcement” operation yesterday. LJ user varfolomeev66Radio Echo of Moscow journalist Vladimir Varfolomeev – asked this question on his blog: “What's next?”

He wrote (RUS):

I'm not referring to Georgia now.

The Russian government has used every serious crisis as a reason for yet another tightening of the screws and strengthening of its own positions. After the [Moscow apartment blasts of 1999], the [Second Chechen War] began, and Putin came to power. After [the 2000 Kursk submarine disaster] and then [the Nord-Ost theater siege in 2002], [ORT and NTV TV channels] were finally suppressed. After [Beslan school siege of 2004], regional elections were canceled.

What is the regime up to now?

Here are a few comments to this post:

oleg_kozyrev:

- Control of the internet

varfolomeev66:

Considering that there's almost nothing uncontrolled left, this is possible.

humanist_us:

They'll tighten the remaining screws on the internet.

And [Radio Echo of Moscow] ;)

Though you were definitely trying hard not to annoy our two dwarfs [with your coverage of the crisis]

Blogging from Tbilisi, LJ user oleg-panfilov – Oleg Panfilov of the Center for Journalism in Extreme Situationsposted the day's summary on his blog and explained (RUS) what the five-day crisis might mean for Georgia politically:

Today was the day of emotions.

First, an incredibly huge rally in the center of Tbilisi and people crying during Saakashvili's address.

Second, a day of waiting, while the politicians were discussing and expressing opinions on Georgia and its relations with Russia.

And finally, Georgia's departure from [CIS, the Commonwealth of Independent States]. For now, in the form of a political statement, but after a while, in a matter of a few days, Russia will automatically turn into an occupying force not just formally, but legally as well, because it will lose its status of a “peacekeeper” on behalf of CIS. And then, in accordance with all international laws, any presence of [Russian] troops on the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia can be recognized as illegal.

To put it differently, yet another military adventure has turned into [a nothing].

I don't know what kind of thinking overwhelmed Russian military commanders (of course, if there was any thinking involved at all), but Georgia has managed to endure and avoided getting back into the state it was in during the Soviet times. That is, a state of a [“large shashlyk restaurant”] for the Russian nomenclature.

If we analyze what's happened, we'll find many arguments both in favor of Georgia, and in favor of the imperial ways of today's Kremlin. One thing is clear, though – Georgia is not going to turn into a different country, it has tasted freedom in the past five years, has tasted democracy, despite the fact that many people do not like it.

Now it's up to other remnants of the Soviet empire whether they are going to continue living the way they did or will learn from Georgia.

Tomorrow is another day of waiting.

Below are a few comments:

mormegil11:

Georgia has lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia. When euphoria ends, gray everyday life will begin – without money transfers from [relatives working in] Moscow, without sea and air transport connection [with Russia], without working banks – and then the size of the catastrophe will grow larger than the size of the naive and excited crowd at the rally.

This war has no [winners or losers]. There is guilt, a feeling of enormous guilt before the dead ones: Georgians, Russians, Ossetians, Ukrainians, Dutch… And what is membership in CIS, or NATO, or anyplace else compared to this guilt…

rousyn:

“without money transfers from [relatives working in] Moscow”

Re-orientation of labor migration to the West? Isn't his progress? […]

realpushkin:

Oleg, you are wrong, unfortunately. […]

1) NATO countries and allies in general are not going to get themselves involved in a war with Russia, if it happens again – this is [counterproductive] for everyone.

2) Abkhazia and South Ossetia are not going to become part of Georgia even as autonomies – most likely, Russia will recognize their independence.

3) If it is proved that civilians died in Tskhinvali because of [the use of Grad multiple-launch rocket system] – Saakashvili will not have a chance to join [any organization]. […]

129 comments

  • me

    This whole deal is the US vs Russia. Both countries still have hate for eachother from the coldwar even though they both say they were trying to be allies in the recent years. It is still in the back of everyones minds. The reason i say this is between these 2 countries is because russia dont like that the us has placed those democracies in the ex-soveit nations. so there will always be issues between russia and the US untill they actually have a war. Which we all know that the US would definatly win giving no nukes are used. And i also this will be the start of world war three giving all of the tension between so many countries in so many different areas of the world.

  • dumpara

    I am Georgian and devastated with war is happening in my country. Unfortunately, there is Nothing I can do about it. Worse part is the world is just watching to see what’s going to happen next. It’s not a TV show people, someone has to do something. At some point Russia will turn to one of you with missiles and we’ll see how it feels. THANK YOU FOR NOTHING WORLD.

  • Rich

    Dear Friends,

    In regards to “puppets” of the world, Bush is the biggest of all ! He said that he has been running the US according to “Catholic principles and diplomacy” and that when he looked into the eyes of Benidict he “saw God”, and has apparently converted to Catholicism. So who is the real “trouble-maker” The Roman Catholic church under the control of the most evil Jesuit Order. They have been doing this for centuries, where there is or has been war, vietnam, Korea, San Salvador, Iraq, Aphghanistan, it is the work of Roman Catholicism in their bid to control the world ! On behalf of the Vatican, the US, trained the Georgeian military to do what they did, but it “back-fired”; the Russian legitmate response caught them totally by surprise !

    But Rome neve has learned her lesson and Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others are next ! The end result; The Papal New World Order is about to “self destruct” and will come to their end and “NONE SHALL HELP HIM” !

    rich

  • Tamuna

    Peace to everyone! What Russian gov. is doing is unacceptable in civilized society that we live in. Those like Putin do not belong to civilized society. He should have never been governing Russia. Medvedev is just a little lawyer, God only knows why he agreed to become Russian president and take this bloody murder that they are conducting in Georgia in his hands. Mostly drunk Russian soldiers that they supplied with weapons and alcohol to do whatever they wish to do with everyone living in Georgia. Those soldiers are like machines, they even do not know who they are killing and most importantly why. Putin MUST be brought to International Criminal Court for the war crimes and genocide against humanity and Russian gov must be out of G8.

  • Nino

    For Mr. Lavrov and his government Georgia is just “illusory” project. They wish to turn a living people in to illusory Ghosts so they can seize the real land of the Georgian people. Because Russia only encircles half the globe, and it is not really enough. I think these people just have no souls. For them any small country or nation is just project for their ambitions.

    Oh, This is for Brian:
    My suggestion for you is maybe you will try and move to live in Georgia for a while. It will be great experience for you. You are sitting in your worm house in Canada and never felt what is to be without electricity, water, gas when Russians are cutting everything in the middle very cold winter. And when this kind of terror is going not one day or one week, even not for one year; when it goes for years. It is easy to judge others when you have never felt what it is like to be refugee in your own country; about 300,000 peoples were expelled by Russians from their houses in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and are refugees in their own country for 18 years. Oh, yeh, I think you would be much happier with such a good neighbor country.

  • Katie

    Brian,

    as far as the tension goes between Georgians and Ossetians…Georgia has always been a multi-ethnic country with mixed populations of Ossetians, Georgians, Abkhazis, Armenians, Jews, Azeris, Russians, etc living in Abkhazia as well as South Ossetia and other parts of Georgia. South Ossetians and Georgian never had anything to fight over, they never wanted a war and when you talk about the people living in South Ossetia (South Ossetians which btw Georgians never considered anything other than Georgians… I speak from the first hand experience, I am half Ossetian half Georgian), you are really talking about a very small portion of people that stayed behind whom Russia gave its passports after thousands and thousands of others were forced to flee and live on the territory of Georgia as refugees during the conflict in the early 90s… or Russian citizens that settled in there after that original conflict. These regions have become breakaway regions only because Russia inflated conflicts in those regions bringing in couple of greedy Ossetians and Abkhazians (every nation has traders that will choose their own interests over anything else, Georgians have had many of those too) to govern the regions and has continued to support these de facto governments politically as well as militarily. unfortunately, these conflicts have been portrayed as conflicts between Georgians and South Ossetians and between Georgians and Abkhazis, but anyone who has a better understanding of what exactly has been happening in Georgia since the disintegration of the Soviet Union will quickly realize that this has never been a war between Ossetians and Georgians. Russia has always had the same politics when trying to weaken its neighboring countries. It has always been notorious in inflating ethnic conflicts in its different parts so that no one country or nation would prevail or would ever think of uniting with another against “MOTHER RUSSIA”… I really hope you guys get a better picture of what is really going here.

  • V

    Sending help to Georgia to fight against Russia not only would trigger WW3, but it wouldn’t save anymore Georgian people. As a matter of fact is, imagine what you see their now only hundreds of times worse. Any place where you have a war, no matter what country is fighting, is going to be devastated, and the longer and more aggressive it is the more damage. The worst thing you can do is pick a fight with a former Communist regime with strong Communist allies. As history shows, if there was WW3 triggered by a conflict between Georgia and Russia, believe me both would be blamed. For now the best thing is to send AID to Georgia, get in the way of Russian military without the use of violence.

  • expat2

    Georgia: The New Berlin

    To V’s point: This situation is the brink of WWIII. Picking a fight with communists or capitalists, at least by proxy, was the accepted world order for over 40 years.

    With the fall of the Soviet state, the ‘communist’ label can be removed, but the rabid nationalism and desire of a return to imperial czarist glory are merely hiding under the new veneer of elections and the market reforms that brought the Russian Federation the capital it needed to rebuild and expand after languishing under the Soviet system. And those market reforms also made it a credible player in the “Great Game,” now ready to flex its political muscle through economic as well as military means like energy blockades.

    And the US aid is, as you say, a means to hinder the Russian military. But it is a direct military intervention, and there is a risk of escalating violence. The aid will be delivered by US military air and sea transport, reminiscent of the Berlin airlift, to keep Georgia’s airports and seaports open. They will not be unprotected. Any provocation or perceived interference by the Russian military will be dealt with militarily.

    Given the Russian military’s dismal performance,at least in military terms, so far, the professed Georgian support from the Ukranians, and a full-fledged NATO alert and response package available in Turkey, Tovarisch Putin would be playing a very risky card indeed trying to interfere with the aid packages.

    Neither the US nor the Russians are in a position politically, economically, or militarily, to enforce their desired version of an end-game here. So I see a stalemate developing, and this the beginning of a new Cold War.

  • Russia has been backed into a corner over the last fifty years and I don’t think they truly understand just how dicey it can get when all their past sins can suddenly be revisited upon them. They are surrounded by a lot of hungry and pissed off lions of various sizes.

    But honestly, what has Russia done for anyone since 1991?

    If the international community feeds Georgia to The Bear, what do they get in return? Will Russia throw Iran to the US?

    I doubt it.

    Will Russia say something like, ‘Thanks guys, we feel secure now and we’ll stop acting belligerently towards the rest of Europe because we are not threatened anymore by the Americans!’

    I doubt it.

    How many other nations should The Bear get to eat?

    I realize, of course, that if the US defended Georgia from the Russians, it would destabilize the entire Middle East even more than it already is, and more specifically, Iran and Pakistan. They’d be looking at a war involving all the land between the Nile and the Himalayas.

    But still – I find Bush’s lack of concern for his partners in the “coalition” despicable.

    I give the utmost of support to the Georgians.

  • ppavel

    Reading US press and listening to CNN reports all I can say: go watch “Wag the dog” movie

Join the conversation

Authors, please log in »

Guidelines

  • All comments are reviewed by a moderator. Do not submit your comment more than once or it may be identified as spam.
  • Please treat others with respect. Comments containing hate speech, obscenity, and personal attacks will not be approved.