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China: Seismologist Claims Sichuan Earthquake Was Predicted

Categories: East Asia, China, Disaster, Freedom of Speech, Governance, Science

Li Shihui, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [1] (CAS), exposed in his blog [2] that the Sichuan earthquake [3] on May 12 was already predicted at an earlier time. In spite of the various rumors of earthquake omens which are flooded on the Internet, Li's specialty and systematic statement have helped him gain many people's confidence, even after his controversial articles are deleted by the network administrator.

The front page of Li's blog

Clicked on the relevant articles of Li's blog, the page appears to be”Sorry, the blog you visit doesn't exist.”

A copy of Li Shihui's article on chinalabs.com [4]:

地震预报专家欲哭无泪 :今天的强震有人预报

中国科学院工程地质力学重点实验室   李世煇
2008-05-12 23:45:02





Seismologist with tearless grief: Today's strong quake was predicted
Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Li Shihui
2008-05-12 23:45:02
Under the direction of the modern science and technology of Western World, the forecast of destructive earthquake(over 5 magnitude) is impossible, especially the imminent earthquake prediction, which has been a general consensus in the seismology world. From this point of view, there is no way to well predict the Tangshan earthquake [5] 32 years ago or today's Wenchuan earthquake. The TV program “Read News Everyday”(有报天天读)of Phoenix [6]mentioned: some newspapers said the calamity of Tangshan earthquake is “mainly caused by human error” ; the anchor of “Debate on Current Affairs”(时事辩论会) said: if China had accepted the international aid, hundreds of thousands of people would have survived. Those opinions are not in accord with the facts. The truth is the tragedy might have been avoided if authorities had accepted the views of the scientists, who combined the research of the east and the west. Please refer to the relevant articles I copied or published in my blog.
During 1970‘s, a group of young seismologists in China had achieved great results which were well ahead of the world level by studying the essence of Chinese traditional culture(including the methods that fully make use of the historical documents and “analogy drawn from phenomena”). For example, according to the statistics of the relationship between drought and earthquake throughout the ages(including 1956-1970), Geng Qingguo discovered a law that “the epicentral region [7]always suffered droughts 1-3.5 years before the earthquake over 6 magnitude. Besides, the larger the drought region occupied and the longer the drought lasted, the higher the corresponding magnitude would be.” (2-3.5 years after the long droughts during 512-1879AD, seven 7.5-8 magnitude earthquakes had occurred in China) In 1972, Geng Qingguo put forward a theory of “medium-term earthquake prediction based on the relationship between drought and quake”. By that law, Geng Qingguo successfully predicted the Haicheng earthquake [8] in 1975 and especially the Tangshan earthquake in 1976. In 1980's, He published his treatise The Relationship between Drought and Earthquake in China (Science Press). However, those achievements challenged the powers in the Chinese seismology circle, so Geng Qingguo was shunted from the prediction team to an earthquake newspaper office.
Today is May 12, 2008, Chinese seismologist Geng Qingguo is suffering with tearless grief. In 2006, according to the relationship between drought and earthquake he predicted in recent years there would be a serious earthquake over 7 magnitude in Aba autonomous region [9]. After a group discussion on April 26 and 27, 2008, Committee of Natural Hazards Prediction subordinate to Chinese Geophysical Society [10](CGS) reported that “a 6-7 magnitude earthquake may occur to the south of Lanzhou [11], around the borders of Sichuan [12], Gansu [13] and Qinghai [14].” (the written report had been sent to the China Earthquake Administration [15] by confidential letter on April 30). What's more, Geng Qingguo clearly indicated that “the dangerous point of an earthquake over 7 magnitude in Aba region is on May 8 (within 10 days before or later)” in accordance with the magnetic storm Combinations.(The prediction above had obviously pointed out all the three essential factors). Geng Qingguo, an undoubted national treasure, is excluded by the earthquake experts of mainstream, and can only depend on a meager pension to continue his research. The pity is what this old seismologist said didn't make any difference.
I am filled with grief and indignation. I was wondering if there will come a day when Geng Qingguo, Wang Chengmin, Ren Zhenqiu and Wangdixing such national treasure are not frozen out any more, and freely work for the rejuvenation of China.


A picture taken before the “From Haicheng Earthquake to Qinglong Miracle Conference” on December 17, 2006. The one siting left is Geng Qingguo, Wang Chengmin on the right and Li Shihui in the middle.

The mass circulation of Li Shihui's article in the blogsphere and BBSs has provoked more criticism on China Earthquake Administration which did not publish any warning before the dreadful earthquake while some other netizens expressed their doubt about Li's unofficial statement.

Comments on KDNET [16]:

作者:东风51 发布于 2008-5-15 0:11:55

Author: Eastwind 51 Posted on 2008-5-15 0:11:55

In a word, the information about the earthquake should be treated with scientific and realistic attitude. Tell the people that those information is neither rumors nor totally reliable truth. I believe people will understand that. To deal with the situation only by violent ideological confrontation can only backfire. The authorities should learn the lesson.
On the other hand, it is really inadvisable to give too much emphasis to Geng Qingguo's prediction, because before the earthquake no one knew whether his prediction was right or not.
Someone may believe that it's a case involving human life, so the authorities should have paid more attention to his prediction. However, those friends may not know there are hundreds and thousands of such kind of prediction. it's not easy for the authorities to pick the valuable out of vast information.

作者:后台操作 发布于 2008-5-15 0:21:34

Author: Background Operation Posted on 2008-5-15 0:21:34
To hell with political needs!

作者:李三来也 发布于 2008-5-15 3:28:16

If the thing is true, the head of the Earthquake Administration should be handed over to the justice!

Comments on Tianya [17]:

作者:中国结3 发布于 2008-5-14 11:13
如果地震局的领导有一丝人性的话 这样的预报至少也应该引起他的一些重视吧 密而不发 他居心何在!!让他去和温总理一起到四川 去挖那些遇难者!!

Author: Chinese Knot 3 Posted on 2008-5-14 11:13
If the head of the Earthquake Administration still had a little humanity, at least he should have paid some attention to the prediction, but he just kept it as secret. What was he up to!! Let him go to Sichuan with Premier Wen and unearth those victims.

作者:游客 发表于 2008-5-14 12:04

Author:Guest Posted on 2008-5-14 12:04
Our country is doing all that which is to be done, but whether the Earthquake Administration carried out their responsibilities? Is there a negligence of duty?? Should the authorities call the Earthquake Administration to account??? All the people are proud of Premier Wen, the rescue officers and soldiers, the medical personnel and the reporters; When those people who are negligent of their duties mourn for the dead, is it necessary to let them experience the bereaved family's feelings???
I have no idea of Seismology and I am not sure whether the person mentioned in the article is a Seismologist. If so, it's really a big woe of China. If China does not value talents, the country will…

作者:游客 发布于 2008-5-14 13:06

Author:Guest Posted on 2008-5-14 12:04
I don't think it's a negligence of duty or problems of prediction capability, but a terrible fear of responsibilities. If the predicted earthquake occurs, the prediction become an honor, but more often the prediction will fail, and in that case who is going to be responsible for the failure? From the technical experts to the chief executive, who is willing to take the risks?

作者:游客 发布于 2008-5-16 3:46

Author:Guest Posted on 008-5-16 3:46
I was in doubt about the earthquake at very beginning. The officials of Earthquake Administration are still practicing Tai chi chuan, prevaricating with a excuse that prediction and early warning are impossible. Bullshit!The work of this Earthquake Administration is only to measure the quake magnitude?
Poor Chinese!!!!! We have lost so many little lives!!!!!!!