China: Earthquake Prediction

Many people wondered why there was no earthquake prediction for the Sichuan earthquake. Liu Xiao yuan criticized the local government for ignoring various earthquake sign reported by local residents [zh]. Li Shi hui wrote in his blog that an accurate prediction by experts to China Earthquake Administration had been ignored [zh].


  • Sue Melin

    The Bible says that in the last days, there will be earthquakes in various places. Don’t forget the tsunami in asia, and the flood that covered New Orleans. God is trying to get our attention; will we listen, or will we ignore Him?

    Read Matthew 13:8 in the Bible

  • Dr. Himansu Kumar Kundu

    I know of successful earthquake predictions by the Chinese scientists, especially of Haicheng earthquake in 1975. I am sure there must have been some predictions for this Sichuan earthquake of May 12, as corroborated by the report of Oiwan Lam. But when I tried to get details of it both the links came out in chinese , which I could not follow. Is it posisble to have the details in English ? I am interested in the study of earthquake precursors. It will be of great help to me. I am also interested in getting such details from various concerned people.


  • […] Apparently, as Jeric Peña blogged, a text message went around yesterday predicting an earthquake. People got nervous. So a clarification: USGS: Earthquakes can’t be predicted. But bloggers in China are discussing the possibility a prediction was made, but ignored. […]

  • if there is accurate earthquake predicting going on, I hope that it will be more widely reported

  • joe

    nice to see all of you people are concerning china’s earthquake which has already caused more than 15000 deaths and the number is still increasing.i’m also a chinese ,you’ll never understand how hard it is to see your people can log on to get more detailed informations about this desaster.and i hope all of you guys could make some actions to help those people who were trapped.there are many ways to send your benevolence.i’m not here to advertise for some orgnizations or enterprises.if you really want to help the trapped people ,just find your own ways to show your charity.i just want to say thank you to all of you who are or have been concerning about all of this. chinese people will appreciate it .may the 2008 olympic slogan is never an empty slogan.thank you

  • Sunshine

    Apparently, human beings cannot always predict earthquakes. Why? Because we fellow human beings are not clever than God.

  • alex

    Im not relgious at all, but im quite sure that “god” had anythign to do with an earthquake, and I wouldnt put to much faith of yours into that book as it blinds people from the truth. I have read about the chinese goverment not takings questoins about the quake predictions and found it intresting.

  • Aruth


  • tina

    someone said the earthquake center will transfer to the places betwwen Xi’an (shannxi province )and tian shui in gan su province,i’m very worried about it,because i live in the place.I have seen so many photos taken in si chuan wen xian county,which is terrible! I hope someone who knows the predictions of the transfer tell me ,send e-mail to me! thank you !

  • Janish

    On May 7th, five days before the deadly quake struck, a self-proclaimed seismologist from Wuhan city posted a notice on the Internet predicting that an earthquake would strike on May 12th.

    “According to information I have in hand, and exchanges that I have had with some foreign colleagues, I predict China will have an earthquake on May 12, 2008. The approximate location will be in the middle of Sichuan and Hubei, though all China may feel the tremors,” read the notice.

    The man went on to note that his predictions could not be announced publicly because it could cause “panic.”

    The Epoch Times is still trying to confirm the name and claims of this seismologist.

    Three days later, after the earthquake struck, the notice was deleted. A screenshot of the notice can be seen on the Epoch Times Web site.

    A few days before the quake, many strange phenomena happened too. On May 10, there was a report on West China City Paper that tens of thousands of toads were migrating in Mianzhu of Sichuan. The toads walked on the road and many were crushed to death by vehicles and pedestrians. Some villagers thought it was a bad omen. But the local authorities explained that it was a normal phenomenon. They said it was the peak breeding period for toads. Some experts even claimed that the migration of the toad was proof that the ecological system of Mianzhu was getting better.

    In Taizhou of Jiangsu, tens of thousands of toads were also found crossing the roads.

    In Enshi City of Hubei, 80,000 tons of water disappeared from a pond named Guanyin on April 26. Whirlpools began to develop at about 7am, and within 5 hours, the entire pond dried up. That was seen as a sign of a quake coming too.

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