Armenia: Post-Election Revolution Scenario?

revolution

That there would be mass demonstrations immediately after the presidential election held last week in Armenia was known long ago. Many observers also figured on yet another attempt by the radical opposition to stage a colored revolution of the type seen in Georgia and Ukraine. However, few expected it to succeed, but a week after the 19 February vote, the situation is now gearing up for what might be serious confrontation between opposition supporters and the authorities.

At the heart of the post-election dispute lies the issue of succession to the incumbent and outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, who is unable to run for a third term in office under the constitution. Indeed, the 19 February presidential election was seen by most critics of the government as merely a formality for Kocharian to pass on power to his trusted lieutenant, prime minister Serge Sargsyan.

Serge Sargsyan

The radical opposition put its hopes on the return of Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian.

Levon Ter Petrosian

However, with many such as The Armenian Observer believing that Sargsyan would be unable to pass the 50 percent + 1 threshold to win outright on election day, a second round was expected by most independent observers. Analysts and journalists alike were all convinced of that eventuality.

I still see Serzh Sargsyan as the front runner – he might have close to 35% of voter sympathy. […] I have a feeling, that excellent PR and aggressive campaigning finally did it – and Levon Ter-Petrossian now has perhaps 20% of vote. […]

But while most polling stations were reported as calm, albeit with international observers reporting “bad” or “very bad” problems with the vote and count in 16 percent of polling stations, civil society received many complaints of violence, intimidation and ballot box stuffing on polling day. Working in the newsroom of Internews, The Armenian Observer received many such complaints himself.

[…] Complaints and information on various violations kept pouring in. The situation was apparently several times worse in the Regions. Our journalists visited several sites of violations and noted the boldness with which those were being carried out: ballots stuff, voters intimidated, journalists hindered from their work. Reports […] give me enough background to state, that the authorities most coldheartedly raped the concept of free and fair elections and might as well get away with it.

It wasn't long before videos of ballot box stuffing and other disturbances soon found their way on the Internet. Faced with a generally positive verdict on the conduct and outcome of the election by international observers, however, it was no wonder that the final results did not change much by the time they were confirmed at the weekend.

Election Day

Of course, the final results — 53 percent to Sargsyan and 21 percent to Ter-Petrossian — didn't surprise most election observers. Even on the day of voting, The Armenia Blog wasn't expecting the presidential election to be fair.

Ah yes, today is the day where corruption, blind nationalism, and fraud all come together in the form of Armenia's Presidential Election! Who will win? Who will lose? One thing's for certain, this is not going to be a demonstration of democracy and whoever is elected will first and foremost get himself rich, then those near him, and whatever is left will be spread among the lower individuals in power.

The blog later commented on the post-election mass protests.

It seems tens of thousands of people unhappy with the results of the election have decided to take to the streets in protest. It appears that this minority isn't happy with the fact that Serge Sarkisian received the majority of the votes in a landslide election or that Russia and the OSCE have approved of the election and its results. […]

All of which didn't really concern the radical opposition much. Since the day after the 19 February presidential election, protests were being staged daily in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, and pulled large crowds averaging about 30,000 in terms of attendance. On 21 February, Ter-Petrossian's supporters announced round the clock demonstrations which included occupying Yerevan's Liberty Square. The Armenian Observer spent a night with demonstrators.

…and all that time I couldn’t help feeling guilty and responsible for everything that’s happening now. We all are responsible, aren’t we? But some are brave enough to stand up and fight, some, like me – look for excuses in not liking Levon or supporting Vahan – and some openly admit they are being raped by Serzh, and they even like it.

[…] Anyways – I’m not here for Levon. I’m here, because I deeply sympathize with these people. I always feel emotionally attached to people who sincerely believe in their cause. And I feel guilty for not supporting Levon – but, I just can’t! I dislike him. I don’t think he has ever done anything right! […]

Now I just really want to sleep. What was I doing out there all night anyway?

Opposition Demo

Such demonstrations are not new to Armenia. However, what has made the past week's turn of events somewhat different is the consistency by which that part of the opposition led by Ter-Petrossian has managed to gather tens of thousands of people on a daily basis in Yerevan's Liberty Square.

Unzipped reports that several officials and diplomats, albeit those mainly linked to the former president, either joined protesters or resigned their positions in a show of solidarity.

Four senior Armenian diplomats […] have resigned in protest of the conduct of presidential election and in support of opposition movement led by the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan. This information has just been confirmed by Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Ruben Shugaryan was Armenia's first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan's press-secretary in 1992-1993, before (1991-1992) he was Ter-Petrosyan's aide.

Regardless of conflicting news of support by some high-rank officials in government, judiciary, military etc (some of them confirmed, others – not), it is clear that Levon Ter-Petrosyan has loyal group of supporters in governmental structures, who even after 10 years of him not being in power, retained their loyalty [and] joined the protest movement which is evolving to become a movement for democracy.

Moreover, to date there has been no attempt by the authorities to violently disperse protesters and that's even though they have simultaneously held marches through the city center which have disrupted traffic and have not been sanctioned by the municipality. More significantly perhaps, faced with a lack of coverage by the mainly government-controlled broadcast media, the marches were a powerful tool in conveying a message on the streets.

[…] one foreign correspondent at yesterday’s march by a few thousand female supporters of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian remarked that the move was a smart one. It was perfect for foreign news, he said. Another Western journalist agreed, specifically pointing out that riot police are less prone to violent suppression of such rallies when there are young women present.

[…]

Ostensibly, the march was to protest the lack of coverage of Ter-Petrossian’s protest rallies by Armenian Public Radio and Television, but to be honest, the reason wasn’t important. What was is that Ter-Petrossian’s team managed to score a publicity coup by giving both local and foreign media exactly what they needed. It was also a way to highlight to society that his movement, regardless of its real size, has diverse support.

Womens March

Ter-Petrossian, an academic who rose to power riding high on dissent within Soviet Armenia at the end of the 1980s, is also a skilled orator and considered a master at exploiting such situations. If anyone possesses the ability to destabilize the situation in even the most authoritarian of environments, it's him.

[…] Just watching him gesticulate and promise everything to the crowd is quite different than being present at a speech by the prime minister and president-elect, Serge Sargsyan. When people say that Ter-Petrossian has the ability to mobilize and retain the interest of his supporters with his presence, it’s true.

Ter-Petrossian

The rallies, such as one staged today, have encouraged many of Ter-Petrossian's supporters, and especially those now living outside of the country. Even though more and more key allies of the former president are being rounded up in swoops staged by masked National Security Service (NSS) agents, their mood is optimistic. One of them is Artmika at Unzipped.

Never before (in a decade or so) Yerevan saw such a big rally and such a huge protest against falsified elections, in support of their right to vote and the chance for democracy in Armenia. […] Ongoing arrests and detentions of a number of opposition supporters did not manage to intimidate people. Quite the contrary. […]

[…]

Whether current ruling regime will eventually manage to break down these protests, remains to be seen. They can only do it by imposing Stalinist methods (they already started – arrests, Bolshevik style propaganda…).

The fact that they lost already is out of question.

Archuk's Blog is a little more reserved and and says that reliable information is scarce.

Last few days I've been trying to figure things out before writing anything, because the information coming from Armenia is so contradicting, it's impossible to say what's true and what is not. My own friends in Armenia have divided in two camps, each one of them saying that are definitely going to come out victorious.

Opposition Protest

In a sense, The Armenian Observer agrees, but says that if Ter-Petrossian's demonstrations turn into a genuine pro-democracy movement, events can hardly be criticized. As a result, the blogger concludes, perhaps its now time for every Armenian citizen to take sides.

There is a lot of confusion in Armenia today. Information and misinformation flows follow each other – it is becoming harder to distinguish truth from lies. Protests continue in Yerevan’s Freedom Square, where opposition candidate, First President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrossian’s supporters demand recognition of their candidate’s victory, although there was no objective indication throughout the electoral process, that Ter-Petrossian’s claims are true.

[…]

A very large part of voters, who are fed up with the incumbent authorities […] are still not ready to support Ter-Petrossian either, but would otherwise support anything that is an expression of opposition to the current regime and condemnation of election fraud. […] In this respect, I guess it would have been a wiser move, if Ter-Petrossian stopped claiming his dubious victory, and instead demanded justice and new elections – I mean – who can be against justice, even if calls to restore it come from a controversial figure like Ter-Petrossian?

[…]

Everything indicates, that as the opposition protests continue, undecided people are faced with the challenge to make a choice, and join one of the two opposing sides. It is becoming exceedingly hard to stay indifferent. In fact, it can no longer be justified.

A week after the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, that appears to be the situation with Ter-Petrossian hoping to attract the greater part of society, fed up as it is with high levels of corruption despite record economic growth, to his rallies. Meanwhile, as both the opposition and government apply pressure on officials to side with them, the scenario of post-election revolution in Armenia looks closer than its ever been.

Interior Ministry

However, when and how this will end is still not yet known. For now, the advantage appears to lie with Ter-Petrossian even though the international community and media does not appear to support his attempt at post-election regime change. On the other hand, bloggers such as The Armenian Observer still fear that it might all end in violence with a state of emergency being declared in the country.

Even so, the blog casts doubts on the ability of the authorities to control the situation later.

People have awakened, and Serzh Sargsyan, even if he manages to tackle this somehow, will never be a president with real power, authority and legitimacy. Even if Ter-Petrossian doesn’t become president (and I still see his chances as rather vague), he has already won.

Marilisa Lorusso's Blog calmly assesses the situation and says that how post-election events play out is not yet certain.

[…] It’s hard to say that in the last 10 years Ter-Petrosyan made the general public regret too much that he was no longer the President, and that a overwhelming majority of population is ready to follow him in his “struggle till the end”. […] Those who backed his run stand by him, but it’s hard to foresee, with international recognition of acceptably free and fair elections, if such a strategy can lead to a stroke, as he seems to expect.

But, as the first president and radical opposition leader appeals to the Constitutional Court, and as the authorities show signs of resorting to more draconian methods to stop opposition protests, some observers expect this week to shed light on what the eventual outcome might be. Interestingly, unlike past elections in Armenia, that will undoubtedly be first discussed on the Internet.

Photos: © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007-8

41 comments

  • artsagh girl

    65. artsagh girl Says:
    March 3, 2008 at 12:14 pm

    I just found this blog. I notice that there is not a lot of actual information coming out of Yerevan. I too wonder if You Tube has been blocked. I saw a some video footage that is no longer accessible.

    I just received a phone call from Yerevan, from a reliable source. This person is a surgeon who was in Karabagh during the fighting and knows the various fedayeen from around Armenia and Karabagh. This person states that on Mashtots street, by the Pag Shuga, a group of soldiers from the Shushi battalion opened fire on the crowd. There was no warning for anyone to disperse. The soldiers simply aimed into the crowd and began to fire. At this time, the crowd was not doing anything. The eyewitness then saw the same soldiers shoot out shop windows. They also set fire to the ambulance this person was using to transport a wounded civilian. Two people were shot next to the eyewitness. Both died. The eyewitness has been operating on wounded since yesterday. All who were shot were shot by Karabagh soldiers. There was no rioting and this is not like LA. It’s like, well, a dictator who is going to remind people that he will keep power at all costs.

    I know Robert and Serge. I knew fedayeen. Serge and Robert are not of that class.
    66. Hayk Says:
    March 3, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Serge and Robert are criminals. On March 1, most of the armored soldiers and specnaz troops were talking on Karabakh dialect. Many people heard, and my brother who was on the street on that they even had had concersation with them. One of those soldiers have asked directions from my brother on Tigran Mets street, some of them who were patrooling on the streets even did not know the roads of Yerevan.
    67. artsagh girl Says:
    March 3, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    OK, so let’s get some more information out here, instead of abstract discussions about the relative merits (or lack thereof) of Levon, Robert and Serge.
    68. artsagh girl Says:
    March 3, 2008 at 12:36 pm

    PS to Hayk:
    Re gexaci – the term I learned was kakghkeni — roughly the Armenian equivalent of “country come to town”. There are regions in Armenia (and Karabagh) that had factories or tourism, and the residents were quite sophisticated. Then there are the other parts. One thing to remember is that the tremendous social and economic disruptions of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s (blockade, war, earthquake, dissolution of USSR) shattered the existing social networks in Armenia. With that amount of disruption, for lack of a better term in a short space, one cannot assume that the “best and brightest” will rise to the top. It’s not cream. Rather, the chaos created an environment where any idiot could get rich. Idiots don’t rely on merit- they use force. So the result is a society where idiots with guns are in charge.

  • Eric

    Levon Ter-Petrosyan should start thinking of a constructive opposition instead holding one hate speech after another! Id he is really loves Armenia and is not acting in the name of foraging governments by abusing the pelage of people!

    One shouldn’t be afraid of LTP (even if he ahs declare a war) but one should be afraid of extremist around LTP. because I have never hear a constructive critic from LTP!. Producing hate on Sejik or hate on Kocharjan and this and that is not a election program with them one can solve problems!

    Unfortunately ,RFE/Radi Liberty is spreading a lot of one side news about the political situation in Armenia. This is sad when the media in Armenia is partial free Armenian journalist have to work for “Armenianberrty” in order to earn their money!

    I am upset on the government. in Armenia because they had to create a “media commission” long ago and engage all healthy political forces to work to create free media and a healthy atmosphere e for free and fair election

    If I am not mistaken LTP´s son has a big house with golf place in France? where did he got this money? LTP should be asked to leave Armenia if he is not ready of dialog and a healty and constructive opposition .

  • Astghik

    Armenian people will never think like police does. This is not the end i am sure. The nation was awaken and that process cannot be pushed back. Very many young people were on the FREEDOM squere and participated in rallies. None of them was there for getting any posts and few of them were particularly for Mr. Ter-Petrosyan. They are already CITIZENS and they know their rights and responsibilities. Their right were neglected and they having no other means went to the streets in order to be heard. I think all that is about democracy. If the nation grew to that level, then it would happen sometime, it could be another leader and not Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Protests were very organized and in the framework of laws. I think no excuse can be for the authrities and their actions.
    I am praud of my nation and people who were ready to give their lives for the rights and freedoms to be realised in Armenia. I am extremly sad for those killed. I think what happened was the worst mistake of the current authorities and people will never forget that. This authority will never be legitimate even if it stays.

  • […] was used almost constantly by nearly all candidates contesting the vote, and in the past week it became obvious that it was only a matter of time before our worst fears would be […]

  • […] the former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, broke out on the streets of the capital following the disputed 19 February presidential election in the country, access to the media has been severely restricted. According to presidential decree, […]

  • […] the former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, broke out on the streets of the capital following the disputed 19 February presidential election, access to the media has been severely restricted. According to presidential decree, local media […]

  • […] Левон Тер-Петросијан на улиците на главниот град по оспорените претседателски избори на 19 февруари, пристапот до медиумите беше во голем степен […]

  • nona

    I see how difficult to say the truth …
    o left armenia in 1997, after i have lost my brothers, husband and many dear people.
    now i live and work in uzbekistan, thanks to my Lord Jesus Christ.
    you probably have forgotten, hey you are chtistioans or not?!
    everything we have that is the result of being blind and deaf to the Word of God.
    Only i can say, open the Astvacashunch, you will get the answer.if you really want to be children od God. you have a Great Seviour who is Jesus Christ.
    The is nothing new under the sun!!!!
    Let God bless you all dear sisters and brothers.
    My heart still have place for you all, let’s pray to the Lord Jesus Christ, asking Him to forgive our sins.
    Let the peace of Jesus Christ be in your hearts.

  • nona

    it is me again ,
    i have my older brother in yerevan , but nothing from him during these two months, even we can not find any information i have a hope, that he is safe.
    please young people do not sink into politic, be far from it, it is a longlast game…

  • […] the former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, broke out on the streets of the capital following the disputed 19 February presidential election, access to the media has been severely restricted. According to presidential decree, local media […]

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