Cayman Islands, Jamaica: Elections Predictions?
Written byJanine Mendes-Franco
Mad Bull consults his “second favourite Tarot card reader” to determine the results of the upcoming Jamaican elections – and the results are “clear as mud”.
Written byJanine Mendes-Franco
1 comment
THE JLP WILL WIN THE 2007 ELECTION BIG-TIME 16PNP/ 44JLP.
In an analysis of this nature one has to have benchmarks and conveniently we have the 2002 General Election and the 2003 Parish Council Elections and numerous poll results as guides.
These are better polls than the limited ones actually conducted which polls can be more advantageously used to adjust the actual 2002 election result.
If the seat-count and constituency projections are arrived at by comparing the results of the 2002 General Elections with the swing finding in the order of 14% to say 17% based on the current poll results. Without applying a three per cent margin of error either way, all constituencies with a margin of victory for the PNP of less than say 15% in the election will go to the JLP barring the occasional exception one way or the other.
For 2007, my estimate is a range of 15 to 20 seats to the PNP and 40 to 45 seats to the JLP.
Trust me the PNP are going to lose big-time. Thereafter I believe Mama P is dead meat as the vultures (Phillips and crew) will remove her limb by limb and regroup under new leadership in short order. She does not command the respect required to be given to a leader within her own party and I believe that her demise is being planned right now as they seem to have left her to trip over herself again and again and she was quite limited to begin with.
In a sense it is sad as she had some promise but this capital has been lost.