Less than one week from the presidential election which will take place on December 11, some political blogs have been posting on the candidates’ possibilities at present. “Elections 2005 [1]”, a blog which covers the press, analyzes the latest polls which give Michelle Bachelet [2], the only woman candidate (the favourite) a lesser percentage than previous polls, as none of the candidates, as the present surveys show, would obtain more than 50% plus one of the total voting. If Bachelet keeps falling down, the present scenario, could drastically change, with a greater possibility for any of the two candidates from Alianza for Chile [3], which have been running separately against each other and against Bachelet, to be elected in a second, run-off election in January 15, 2006. If this would happen, the right wing will have the chance to win the election, and put an end to sixteen years of governance by the coalition of the center and left parties named La Concertación [4] (since the Military government which ended in the early 1990).
The political science professor Patricio Navia [5], posts [6] his analysis of the last CEP [7], (Centre for Public Studies) survey, where he explains the loss of Bachelet s popularity from 63,9 % in june, to 53, 9% October as the result of the questioning, by the leaders of her political campaign, of the economic model followed by the current socialist president, Ricardo Lagos [8] which is highly accepted. Navia, thinks, that a segment from La Concertación, which currently approves the growing economy, is more comfortable with the proposals of one of the candidates, from La Alianza (The Alliance); the entrepreneur Sebastián Piñera [9], than with the possible changes in economic policies that could take place under Bachelet s government. Sebastián Piñera has been growing steadily in the polls from a 18,1% in june to a 24,4% in October.
The last CEP Survey [10], of Novemeber, shows Michelle Bachelet at 39%, Sebastián Piñera at 22%, Joaquín Lavín with 21% and finally, Tomás Hirch with 3%.